Key Points:
On Friday, wheat experienced a ~1% decline, settling at $5.583 a bushel. The lower demand for U.S. wheat cargoes added pressure to prices. However, the market still appears set to post a 1.8% gain for the week, recovering from losses in the previous period.
Soybeans and corn also dipped, falling 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively, but both remain on track for weekly gains of over 2%.
See: Wheat prices dip, as seen on the VT Markets app.
Wheat prices have shown some recent resilience after a prolonged downtrend that saw them fall from the $7.07 high to a low of $4.94. On the daily chart, the price is currently testing the 5.60 level, with the moving averages beginning to flatten, indicating potential consolidation.
The MACD is approaching the zero line, with the histogram showing diminishing bearish momentum, suggesting that the downtrend could be losing steam.
We are keeping an eye on the 5.50 support level, as a break below could reignite the bearish trend. However, if the price can maintain its current level or break above 5.70, we could see further upside potential, with the next resistance sitting around 6.00. Global supply uncertainties, especially from Russia, continue to add volatility to this market.
The Sovecon consultancy noted that winter wheat sowing in Russia has fallen to an 11-year low, as drought conditions hamper planting efforts.
Russia’s IKAR agricultural consultancy has also revised its wheat production forecast for 2024 down to 81.8 million metric tons from an earlier estimate of 82.2 million tons. These reductions highlight ongoing risks in global supply.
Traders remain cautious, with eyes on Monday’s U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) annual small grains summary and quarterly grain stocks reports, which could provide further insights into supply and demand dynamics.
These reports may shift market sentiment, especially if stock levels come in above or below expectations.
Soybean and corn prices have been influenced by planting delays in Brazil and Argentina. Brazil’s soybean planting has been postponed due to drought, but some optimism remains as traders anticipate that rainfall in the coming month could allow fieldwork to proceed.
In Argentina, the Buenos Aires grains exchange has warned that it may lower its forecast for corn planting if rain does not materialise soon in key farming regions. This is another factor that could influence corn and soybean prices in the coming weeks.
Also read: Chicago wheat steady as Black Sea supplies pressure prices; soybeans up on stable crop ratings
We expect the price trajectory for wheat to remain under pressure in the short term due to weak demand, but ongoing concerns over global supply could offer some support.
Traders will likely keep an eye on weather developments in Russia and planting progress in South America, as both factors will influence future price movements. Soybeans and corn could experience short-term volatility, depending on rainfall patterns in Brazil and Argentina.
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