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    Oil Prices Fall with China’s Slowing Economy

    October 14, 2024

    Key points:

    • Brent crude falls 1.1% to $78.18, while WTI slips 1.2% to $74.73.
    • China’s CPI and PPI data signal deepening deflation, clouding demand prospects for crude oil.

    Oil prices declined on Monday, with Brent crude futures dropping 86 cents, or 1.1%, to $78.18 per barrel by 0523 GMT.

    U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also retreated 83 cents, or 1.2%, to $74.73 per barrel.

    Both benchmarks reversed their gains from the previous week, with Brent losing over $1 a barrel during the session and WTI showing similar weakness.

    Last week, Brent rose 99 cents, while WTI advanced $1.18, reflecting mixed market sentiment.

    Picture: Crude oil rebounds to 74.223, but bullish momentum weakens, as seen on the VT Markets app.

    China’s Weak Inflation Stokes Deflation Fears and Lowers Crude Demand Outlook

    The downbeat data from China weighed heavily on the market. China’s consumer price index (CPI) showed weaker-than-expected inflation in September, stoking fears of prolonged deflation and reduced consumer spending. 

    The CPI figures failed to meet market expectations, while the producer price index (PPI) experienced a 2.8% year-on-year decline, marking the steepest drop in six months.

    Market participants viewed these developments as a sign of weaker domestic consumption, which could directly impact China’s appetite for crude imports.

    China remains the world’s largest crude importer, and any economic slowdown tends to ripple through global oil markets.

    The Chinese government’s press conference on Saturday offered little clarity on the scale of upcoming stimulus measures, leaving investors uncertain about the extent of economic support.

    Geopolitical Tensions Raise Supply Concerns

    Geopolitical risks are also in focus, as tensions rise following Iran’s missile attack on 1 October.

    Although an Israeli response could disrupt oil production in the Middle East, the U.S. has cautioned Israel against targeting Iranian energy facilities, easing some fears of immediate supply shocks.

    See also: Oil Hikes on War Concerns, U.S. Storm Fears 

    With the demand outlook clouded by China’s economic challenges and geopolitical uncertainty, traders remain cautious.

    If Chinese authorities fail to deliver meaningful stimulus soon, oil prices could face further downside.

    Conversely, any escalation in Middle East tensions might cap losses, keeping oil within a volatile trading range for now.

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