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    Dollar Rallies on Trump Lead; Bitcoin Gains

    November 6, 2024

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    Key points:

    • Dollar Index (DXY) rose 0.76% to 104.14 as early poll results suggest Trump’s lead, signalling potential dollar bullishness in the near term.
    • Bitcoin increased by 3% to $71,317, as market participants expect more cryptocurrency-friendly policies if Trump wins.

    The U.S. dollar gained sharply overnight, driven by the initial exit poll results showing Donald Trump’s lead in the 2024 U.S. presidential race.

    With 10.1% of votes counted in Georgia, Trump is leading with 60.9%, while Kamala Harris holds 38.6%, according to Edison Research. 

    Trump has also secured eight states, while Harris has taken three states and Washington, D.C. These early results align with expectations of a close race in critical swing states.

    Analysts point to Trump’s stance on tariffs and immigration as inflationary, which could further bolster the dollar.

    Dollar Index Rises on Pro-Dollar Trump Policy Bets

    The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies including the euro and yen, gained 0.76% to 104.14.

    This rise reflects a positive reaction among traders betting on a dollar uptrend if Trump’s policies lean towards protectionism and stronger inflationary controls.

    See: The USDX chart indicates a gradual upward trend, stabilising near the resistance level of 104.615, with recent MACD signals suggesting weak bullish momentum. Download the VT Markets app.

    Among the majors, the euro fell 0.77% to $1.0844, indicating that European market participants may be cautious about the economic implications of a Trump presidency. The yen also declined, with the dollar rising 0.68% to 152.64 yen, showing the yen’s typical inverse reaction to global risk appetite.

    See also: Euro Cautious as U.S. Election Looms

    Bitcoin Surges 3% on Hopes of Pro-Crypto Trump Policies

    Interestingly, Bitcoin surged by more than 3% to $71,317. Market sentiment suggests that traders view Trump’s policies as favourable for the cryptocurrency market, given his support for decentralised assets. This aligns with the cryptocurrency’s history of rising when traders anticipate regulatory relaxation or support from the U.S. administration.

    With the market showing an initial inclination towards dollar strength and crypto gains, traders are watching the remaining swing states closely to gauge further impact on the global economic outlook.

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