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    U.S. Dollar Softens as Job Openings Decline

    February 5, 2025

    Key Points

    • US job openings fell to 7.6 million in December, down from 8.2 million in November, signalling a cooling labour market.
    • The US Dollar Index (USDX) has dropped to 107.461, extending its decline as traders reassess Fed rate expectations.

    The US Dollar Index (USDX) continues its downward trend, closing at 107.461, down from an open of 108.529. This aligns with a broader risk-off sentiment following Tuesday’s report that US job openings declined from 8.2 million to 7.6 million in December.

    The drop suggests reduced labour market tightness, which could ease pressure on wage growth and shift Federal Reserve policy expectations toward a more dovish stance.

    Technical Indicators Confirm Bearish Trend

    The 15-minute USDX chart shows consistent downside momentum, with moving averages (5, 10, 30) sloping downward, reinforcing short-term bearish pressure.

    The MACD (12,26,9) remains negative, with the signal line trending below the MACD line, confirming selling momentum. The USDX hit an intraday high of 107.836 but has struggled to hold above 107.700, suggesting resistance at that level.

    Picture: USDX extends losses below 107.500 as weak job data fuels Fed rate cut bets

    The greenback tested key support at 107.400, near the daily low of 107.414. A break below this level could accelerate losses toward 107.200, signaling further downside pressure.

    On the upside, resistance remains at 107.700, with 108.000 serving as a critical level for any potential recovery. Traders will be closely watching these levels for signs of momentum shifts as market sentiment continues to evolve.

    Market Focus Turns to ADP and ISM Data

    Traders are now focused on two key economic reports that could shape the U.S. dollar’s next move. The ADP Private Payrolls report will provide insight into labor market conditions, with a weaker-than-expected print likely reinforcing expectations of a cooling job market.

    Later, the ISM Services PMI will be closely watched, as the services sector plays a crucial role in economic growth. Any signs of slowing activity could add further pressure on the dollar, increasing speculation of a more accommodative Federal Reserve stance.

    For now, traders should monitor 107.400 as critical support and 107.700 as near-term resistance, with volatility expected around the upcoming economic data releases.