The USDCAD traded within an 84-pip range last week, exhibiting volatile price movements. The pair initially struggled against the 200-hour moving average at 1.4210 after surpassing the 100-hour moving average at 1.4200, indicating indecision.
Today, USDCAD opened above the moving averages, briefly dipped below during the Asian session, and has since rebounded. Momentum remains weak, with traders looking for a definitive movement in either direction.
Key short-term support lies at 1.4200, the 100-hour moving average. A break above last week’s highs at 1.4235–1.4246 would enhance bullish momentum, while a drop below 1.4200 could direct attention towards lower support levels, including last week’s low at 1.4165.
Support levels include 1.4200, 1.4165, 1.4150, and the rising 100-day moving average at 1.4133. Resistance levels are positioned at 1.4235–1.4246 and 1.4260–1.4269, marking critical breakout points.
Given the way USDCAD moved last week, there is an apparent struggle between buyers and sellers. The price action shows hesitation, particularly around key moving averages. While the pair managed to push higher, it has not sustained bullish momentum for long, highlighting uncertainty.
Today’s early weakness during the Asian session was short-lived, but momentum remains underwhelming. The reluctance to drive decisively in one direction suggests that traders are waiting for a larger catalyst. The 100-hour moving average at 1.4200 is now an immediate support level. If the price slips below this mark with conviction, further declines become more probable. Levels at 1.4165 and 1.4150 line up as potential retracement points, and a deeper move might bring the rising 100-day moving average at 1.4133 into play.
On the upside, passing last week’s highs in the 1.4235–1.4246 range could reinforce a push higher. Clearing this zone with continued buying pressure may open the door to the next resistance area, around 1.4260–1.4269. This remains an area to watch, as previous reactions suggest it could attract selling interest again.
In the current environment, it is essential to acknowledge that price action is not fully committing either way. While the support and resistance levels provide a framework, waiting for confirmation before reacting is safer than making assumptions. Watching for a stronger directional move will offer better opportunities, rather than chasing minor fluctuations.
For those focused on shorter moves, maintaining awareness of the moving averages and reaction levels is wise. Hesitation around key technical markers often means that sudden bursts of momentum can appear when one side loses control. Until then, patience could be the best approach as price remains stuck in a tight range.
