The Canadian dollar strengthened due to a robust GDP, which pushed the USDCAD pair lower. The USD/CAD broke above the key swing level at 1.4366 and surpassed the 38.2% retracement level at 1.4395, peaking at 1.4452 before sellers entered the market.

This peak entered a resistance zone between 1.4448 and 1.4471, an area of importance in recent trading. After volatility from the Trump Canada tariffs, the price fell below the previous consolidation zone, which ended at 1.4268 in February.

With the USD/CAD back in the consolidation zone, a retest of the 1.4471 upper boundary is possible. This level aligns with the 50% midpoint of February’s range, serving as a key pivot point for future price direction.

Key levels include support at the 38.2% retracement of 1.4395, which now acts as short-term support. A move below this level could lead to further support at 1.4366. Resistance at 1.4471 remains important, with a potential breakout indicating a more bullish trend.

Currently, buyers are dominant, but the consolidation zone remains a factor. Monitoring the 1.4395 level is important for short-term bias; sustaining above it suggests upward potential, while a break below could signal renewed downward pressure.

The Canadian dollar gained strength following stronger-than-expected GDP data, which in turn pressured the US dollar lower against it. This shift led to a temporary push higher in the exchange rate, but sellers quickly emerged as it reached a well-established resistance zone. The pair had initially pushed beyond a key level before stalling just above 1.4450.

This rejection occurred near a zone where past market activity has shown hesitation. The area between 1.4448 and 1.4471 has played an important role in previous sessions, acting as a ceiling where momentum tends to slow. The pullback that followed was amplified by recent market uncertainty, notably after the trade-related headlines involving tariffs. Once the price slipped below 1.4268, a level that had been a reference point earlier in the year, it re-entered familiar territory that had contained previous moves.

Since returning to this broader range, price movement has been largely dictated by buyer and seller behaviour within these boundaries. The possibility of another attempt towards 1.4471 remains intact, given that past resistance levels often attract renewed interest. This level is particularly notable as it coincides with the midpoint of February’s overall movement, giving it added weight as a potential turning point.

For those following price action, certain levels demand close attention. The 38.2% retracement at 1.4395, previously a resistance point, is now acting as a floor in the short term. A failure to hold above this figure increases the likelihood of a deeper move towards 1.4366. Conversely, if buyers maintain control and push beyond 1.4471, it could open the door to a clearer shift in momentum, potentially signalling further strength ahead.

For now, those positioned in the market continue to favour the upside, though the wider range remains a limitation until broken decisively. Holding above 1.4395 supports the idea of continued gains, but any sustained drop beneath it increases the risk of sellers regaining control. The coming days will likely revolve around how price reacts at this middle ground.