Key Points:
- CL-OIL (WTI Crude) steadied at $67.78, near multi-month lows, as OPEC+ supply plans weighed on sentiment.
- OPEC+ to phase out 2.2M bpd of voluntary cuts, starting with 138,000 bpd increases from April.
- US suspends military aid to Ukraine, fueling speculation over potential Russian sanctions relief.
- New US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China raise fears of weaker global crude demand.
OPEC+ Supply Strategy Weighs on Crude
WTI crude traded near $67.78 per barrel on Wednesday, remaining under pressure as OPEC+ reaffirmed its plan to phase out voluntary output cuts.
The group will gradually increase supply by 138,000 bpd per month, starting in April, despite a fragile demand outlook and previous market expectations of a delay.
Technical Analysis: Support and Resistance Levels
Picture: CL-OIL dips to 67.780, testing support at 66.755 as bearish momentum slows, as seen on the VT Markets app
The CL-OIL contract has declined 0.95%, opening at 68.427 and closing at 67.780. The price tested a high of 68.063 before sellers pushed it to a low of 67.720.
The moving averages (5,10,30) indicate a bearish trend, with price action struggling to sustain levels above short-term resistance. The MACD histogram remains in negative territory but shows signs of flattening, hinting at a possible slowdown in selling momentum.
Currently, support is found at 66.755, with a break below this level potentially leading to deeper losses. On the upside, resistance is near 70.34, where the latest rejection occurred. If price recovers above 68.50, an attempt toward 69.50–70.00 could unfold.
Trade and Geopolitical Risks Add to Uncertainty
Additional downside pressure came from US foreign policy developments, with Washington suspending military aid to Ukraine, raising speculation that sanctions on Russia could ease, potentially boosting Russian crude exports.
At the same time, new US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China took effect Tuesday, triggering concerns over weaker economic growth and lower oil demand. However, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested possible tariff rollbacks on Canada and Mexico, introducing further market volatility.
Market Outlook
With crude prices hovering near multi-month lows, market participants will be keenly watching US economic data, inventory reports, and global demand indicators to gauge the broader supply-demand balance. If supply pressures persist and tariff-related demand concerns escalate, crude may remain subdued
If OPEC+ signals flexibility on production increases or US tariff tensions ease, a short-term rebound could materialize. Conversely, further downside risks remain if demand concerns intensify, and supply pressures persist.
