Bitcoin has fallen below the 200-day moving average (MA) at $83,370, suggesting increased bearish momentum. If the price stays under this level, sellers may remain dominant.
Currently, Bitcoin is testing the 50% retracement level from the rally that started at the August 2024 low. On February 28, Bitcoin reached a low of $78,187 before recovering; today’s low is $79,170, and failure to hold above this could see it target the 61.8% retracement level around $72,535.
Key Resistance Level
For bullish momentum to return, Bitcoin must reclaim and hold above $83,370. A successful move could lead to a retest of the 38.2% retracement at approximately $86,600.
This pullback reflects a shift in market sentiment, with the break below the 200-day moving average indicating that sellers are becoming more assertive. Historically, sustained trading beneath this level tends to favour downward movements, as it discourages buyers from stepping in with confidence. Unless Bitcoin can swiftly reclaim its position above this threshold, further declines remain probable.
The recent test of the 50% retracement level suggests that market participants are gauging whether buyers still have the strength to counteract this wave of selling pressure. Typically, this level serves as a psychological battleground, determining whether a retracement is merely a pause before continuation or the start of a larger decline. Wednesday’s dip to $78,187 provided an early indication of how the market responds at these levels. The marginally higher low formed today, at $79,170, signals some resilience, yet without a decisive move higher, it risks giving way to additional losses.
Potential Support Zone
If downward pressure persists and Bitcoin slides below today’s low, focus will likely shift to $72,535, aligning with the 61.8% retracement level. This ratio, often observed in technical analysis, marks a deeper retracement zone where buyers have historically been more aggressive. However, the broader structure suggests that failure to find support there could expose Bitcoin to increased selling pressure, potentially forcing traders to reassess risk exposure.
On the other hand, reclaiming $83,370 is essential for a recovery. A sustained move above would signal that buyers are regaining their footing, increasing the likelihood of a push towards $86,600, which represents the 38.2% retracement. Overcoming this barrier would be an early indication that the momentum is shifting yet again, setting the stage for a challenge of higher resistance levels in the short term.
With these thresholds in focus, it remains imperative to monitor not only price action but also broader factors that may influence positioning. Momentum indicators, volume trends, and market sentiment will play a role in determining whether this current weakness is merely a setback or a precursor to extended downside movement.
