The AUDUSD has experienced a technical shift, moving above the 100- and 200-bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart, which are positioned around 0.6302–0.6308. This upward movement may indicate a change in short-term momentum and serves as immediate support for buyers.
The rally began after the price maintained support between 0.6254 and 0.6268, a key area established by a rising trendline. Following this, the price structure has improved, forming higher lows as it aims for a potential breakout.
Key Resistance Levels
Initial resistance appears at 0.6338, coinciding with the 100-day MA, while subsequent targets include the levels of 0.6363 and 0.6388. Should the price fall below the 100-bar MA at 0.6302, it may prompt a shift in market sentiment.
The AUDUSD shows signs of recovery, with the bias remaining upward as long as it holds above the moving averages. The next challenge is to surpass and maintain a position above the 100-day MA at 0.6338.
This movement above the key moving averages suggests that the tide may be turning, at least in the short-term. By reclaiming levels that previously acted as hurdles, buyers have taken back some control. The region around 0.6302–0.6308, where the 100- and 200-bar moving averages reside, now acts as a buffer, reducing the likelihood of an immediate reversal unless sellers gain momentum. That zone becomes an area to monitor closely.
The earlier rally taking shape from 0.6254–0.6268 came as no coincidence. That price zone aligned with trendline support, making it a natural place for bullish interest to resurface. With every push higher, we have seen buyers defend price levels more aggressively, leading to a pattern of higher lows. A structure like this is often a characteristic of growing confidence. However, it remains to be seen whether this momentum will be enough to clear key resistance zones that have yet to be breached.
Potential Market Reactions
One of those areas stands at 0.6338, a level that aligns with the 100-day moving average. It has yet to be surpassed, and how price reacts here will be telling. If there is a successful move beyond it, the focus shifts to the next upside markers at 0.6363 and 0.6388. These levels do not exist in isolation—they have played a role on prior occasions and could provoke a response once again. On the other hand, should price struggle and sellers regain control, attention would return to the 100-bar moving average at 0.6302 as a potential turning point. A confirmed move back underneath could indicate that the earlier progress is under threat.
Right now, the upside remains intact as long as price stays above the recently reclaimed moving average cluster. As buying interest continues, breaking and sustaining momentum above the 100-day moving average would be the next hurdle. If that happens, it is likely that the targets beyond come into play sooner rather than later. However, price has yet to make that move, so monitoring reactions around key levels will be essential.
