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NZD/USD continued to decline on Monday, dropping to the mid-0.5600s and reflecting bearish pressures after failing to stabilise around 0.5730. Technical indicators suggest ongoing selling momentum, with the MACD indicating a sell bias.
The Relative Strength Index sits at 42.7 and is trending downward, while the Awesome Oscillator shows a lack of bullish enthusiasm. Downward momentum is confirmed by key moving averages, with the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs all sloping downwards.
Support may be found below 0.5670, with previous swing lows likely to be tested. Resistance levels are near 0.5700, 0.57050, and 0.57084; a breach here could lessen short-term pressures, yet the overall trend remains bearish unless prices move above the 20 and 100-day SMAs.
Downtrend Remains Firmly In Control
The article outlines a narrowing path for NZD/USD, which has resumed its downward drift, now finding itself sitting uncomfortably in the mid-0.5600s. After yet another failed attempt to reclaim 0.5730, the pair has surrendered to renewed selling pressure. Indicators leave little room for optimism at present, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) still issuing a clear sell signal—momentum remains skewed to the downside.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), hovering at 42.7, underscores a lack of buying conviction. It’s not yet fully oversold, but the slope suggests the pair isn’t done exploring lower territories. In addition, the Awesome Oscillator—our gauge for broader trend strength—has failed to pick up any sustainable green bars, highlighting the absence of upward force beyond fleeting intraday bounces. Taken together, these readings firmly place the weight behind sellers rather than any early-stage recovery.
We watch the moving averages closely here. With all major lines—the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages—tilting lower, they reinforce that this isn’t merely a short-term shakeout. The downward angles mean the pressure is structurally embedded, rather than reactionary. Unless there’s a sharp and sustained turn, retracements toward resistance zones should be treated with caution, not assumed as the beginnings of a bounce.
Support Levels And Continued Pressure
As we analyse where buyers could re-emerge, previous swing support near 0.5670 stands out. If price action begins to settle near that area, it could stall the slide temporarily. However, if selling persists and pushes below recent lows, we’d expect fresh downside probes, potentially into ranges not seen since the end of last year.
On the upside, there are mild hurdles layered just above 0.5700. Levels like 0.57050 and 0.57084 form what now looks like a resistance shelf—fibrous but immediate. Even a break above this range would need confirmation through a close north of both the 20-day and 100-day SMAs before we’d consider it worthy of a strategic re-evaluation. Anything less, and it’s more likely to be short-covering than genuine reversal.
In the coming sessions, we’ll stay nimble. Higher volatility—in the form of data surprises or shifts in rate expectations—may create sporadic pullbacks, but until the downward momentum fades on the technical side, these are better viewed as secondary to the broader move. The consistency across indicators and higher-timeframe trendlines calls for adjustments, especially where directional exposure has weight.
