“`html
Canada’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI decreased to 46.3 in March, down from 47.8 previously. This decline indicates a contraction in the manufacturing sector.
In currency markets, AUD/USD rebounded from the 0.6220 level to approach 0.6300, influenced by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s stance and positive data from China. Conversely, EUR/USD fell below 1.0800 amid caution ahead of upcoming announcements.
Gold And Bitcoin Update
Gold prices have eased from a record high near $3,150 but remain above $3,100, supported by falling US yields. Bitcoin trades below $85,000 with a growing sense of fear among traders, as sentiment dips to 34 on the Fear & Greed Index.
Leading economists suggest the likelihood of a recession is increasing, particularly with new tariffs set to be implemented. Concerns are growing regarding potential economic slowdowns associated with these tariffs.
With the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in Canada falling further to 46.3 – a number well under the growth threshold of 50 – there’s clear evidence that factory activity continues to shrink. March’s deeper dip from 47.8 the month prior confirms that demand within the manufacturing base remains soft. Broadly, persistent weakness in this space suggests reduced orders, lower output, and challenging conditions for businesses along the supply chain.
This soft backdrop is not isolated. We’ve seen a sharper macro undertone taking root, and it’s visible across multiple asset classes. For instance, review how AUD/USD found a footing near 0.6220 and gradually climbed close to the 0.6300 mark. The bounce was helped along by better economic prints from China, which tend to support the Australian dollar due to trade ties. Also playing a role here is the Reserve Bank’s decision to lean less dovish than anticipated, which provided support once risk sentiment began to stabilise again.
Euro Performance And Broader Economic Risks
On the other hand, EUR/USD dropped through the 1.0800 area. The dip reflects some nervous positioning as traders hold steady ahead of data and central bank commentary expected in coming days. This cautious tone has curbed appetite for the euro, especially in the face of an uneven inflation path and weaker industrial production figures from parts of the bloc.
Meanwhile, gold has cooled modestly from its recent peak near $3,150, though it still clings above the $3,100 level. The move mirrors declines in US Treasury yields – a typical pattern. When yields ease, it often props up non-yielding assets like gold. We’ve been watching inflows remain fairly steady on dips, suggesting traders still view the metal as a way to shield against unresolved macro pressures.
Turning to digital assets, Bitcoin continues to trade below the $85,000 level after breaching it earlier this quarter. Momentum has slowed. Market sentiment, gauged via the Fear & Greed Index, sits now at 34. That’s firmly in fear territory, and it shouldn’t be dismissed. Decent levels of caution can lead to tighter liquidity and exaggerated swings – something to be wary of if positioning too aggressively near round numbers or technical thresholds.
On the broader economic front, forecasts are beginning to tilt more negatively as trade friction gathers pace. With new tariffs preparing to take effect soon, there’s concern among policymakers and strategists that these additional constraints could compound existing demand-side pressures. We are not just looking at the direct price implications – the secondary drag on confidence and investment plans is what must be studied closely.
Expect derivatives volume around macro hedge instruments to pick up. That includes safer-haven flows and volatility-linked plays, especially if yields remain pinned or if commodity-linked assets grow unstable. Tail hedges may start playing a larger role, particularly if session-to-session swings expand further.
This environment demands both patience and selectivity. Tactical positioning is likely to trump sweeping directional bets. Continued attention to spread relationships and volatility skews may offer better signals than chasing momentum outright.
“`
