Silver price (XAG/USD) trades cautiously around $34.00, experiencing selling pressure since Friday. This follows speculation regarding upcoming tariffs from US President Donald Trump on imports.
The White House reportedly plans to impose a 20% tariff on most imports, which could lead to economic shocks globally. Expectations of higher import duties may impact the US economy, raising concerns about inflation and maintaining a restrictive monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.
Investor Focus On Upcoming Data
Investors await key US economic data, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings, with estimates indicating a decline in manufacturing activity and a slight drop in job postings.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading slightly higher at approximately 104.30. Silver struggles to advance towards the upper boundary of an Ascending Triangle pattern, with support from the 20-day Exponential Moving Average near $33.40.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates bullish momentum. March 6 high of $32.77 acts as significant support, while the October 22 high of $34.87 remains a key resistance level.
Silver serves multiple purposes, including as a store of value and medium of exchange. Changes in geopolitical stability, interest rates, and the US Dollar’s strength can influence its price.
Role Of Industrial Demand And Global Trends
As an industry-relevant metal, demand fluctuations, particularly in electronics and solar energy, can affect Silver prices. Economic conditions in major nations, such as the US, China, and India, also play a role.
Silver typically follows Gold’s price movements, reflecting their similar safe-haven asset status. The Gold/Silver ratio can help assess the relative valuation and investment opportunities between the two metals.
What we’ve seen in recent sessions is a great deal of caution in the silver market, with prices hovering near the $34.00 level. That hesitation is not without context—speculation around trade policy, particularly a possible 20% levy on incoming goods, introduces a layer of uncertainty that’s difficult to ignore. While there’s no confirmation, such tariffs—if implemented—would likely influence broader economic dynamics, not only in the United States but in several key trading partners as well. The implications aren’t hard to imagine: dearer imports, which feed directly into price chains, could nudge inflation upward once more.
In that case, there’s a chance we may not see much room for a shift in the US central bank’s current policy stance. If inflation refuses to settle back down, there may be little appetite among officials to lower interest rates. That, in turn, may keep demand for the greenback supported, and with it, apply a ceiling over further advances in metals priced against it.
This week, all eyes turn to two particular economic reports—manufacturing data and job openings. Forecasts already suggest manufacturing is set to cool and hiring sentiment may be softening somewhat. Should the figures come in even weaker than anticipated, there could be some pressure on the Dollar, but it’s unclear whether precious metals would respond firmly or simply drift sideways.
Momentum, at least according to certain indicators, remains tilted in favour of buyers. The RSI over a 14-day period points to underlying strength, which helps to explain why prices haven’t fallen too far from their recent highs. At the same time, we see a stubborn resistance just shy of the $35 level, which has held firm since October. Support, on the other hand, seems well-defended near $32.77—a level that aligns with the local peak from early March.
From a technical view, silver’s action within an Ascending Triangle usually leans to the optimistic side. It’s a pattern that can signal eventual upward continuation, particularly as long as buyers are quick to act when prices dip toward the 20-day average, situated now around $33.40. If that support gives out, it may suggest trend exhaustion rather than mere pause.
Beyond charts and data, fundamentals continue to offer plenty to digest. Industrial demand, especially from electronics and solar energy applications, has become a more pronounced driver. With ongoing emphasis on clean energy infrastructure, especially from both China and India, the metal finds reliable buyers eager to secure material for longer-term projects. Conversely, any slowdown from these regions could quickly translate into softer demand conditions, dragging on price.
One point often overlooked is the tight relationship between gold and silver. These two tend to echo each other’s moves, although silver’s more limited market depth can cause it to react more dramatically. For those measuring risk-adjusted exposure to precious metals, the ratio between gold and silver often functions as a handy reference. When the ratio leans too heavily towards one side, it tends to unwind eventually. At present levels, we think that keeping one eye on that balance remains useful.
No dramatic shifts appear likely until more data is available or policy moves are confirmed. Until then, pricing is expected to remain skittish around headline news and large-scale economic announcements. Patience and a consistent read on volatility may serve traders better than speculation alone.
