On March 28, the API weekly crude oil stock experienced an increase, rising from a previous figure of -4.6 million to 6.037 million barrels. This change reflects the current state of oil inventory levels in the United States.
Many market participants are concerned about a potential recession as new tariffs are set to be introduced on April 2. Economists now consider a recession more likely than previously anticipated.
Bitcoin Rises Amid Institutional Interest
In cryptocurrency, Bitcoin’s price rose by 3% amid fresh purchases by several companies. The U.S. government is also expected to conclude an audit of major cryptocurrency reserves soon.
The latest inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute saw crude oil stockpiles climb by over 6 million barrels—an abrupt swing from the prior drawdown of 4.6 million. The shift suggests that supply accumulation is outpacing demand, at least temporarily. For those of us watching oil-backed derivatives, this upward move in stock could introduce downward pressure on future prices, particularly if other related data—such as refinery utilisation or export volume—fails to offset the increase.
At the same time, there’s a swell of caution building across broader markets. Scheduled tariff introductions on April 2 are not being taken lightly. Recent assessments from economists—many of whom had been hesitant to pin down a downturn before—now put the chances of a contraction above earlier models’ forecasts. That pivot is not merely academic. It reflects rising costs along key supply chains that are now clearly visible in forward-looking indicators. Manufacturing orders, housing starts, and even consumer sentiment numbers appear to be factoring in the expected impact.
Increased Volatility Across Markets
We should remember that these economic inputs often ripple through derivative markets before showing up in the more traditional asset classes. The VIX, for example, has already edged higher, inching its way above 15 in recent sessions. While this level isn’t panic territory, it does point to a rise in hedging activity. Calendar spreads and volatility positioning could become more directional in the short term as nervousness builds.
Turning to digital assets, the recent 3% climb in Bitcoin has stirred renewed discussions about institutional engagement. Several companies have disclosed additional buy-ins, suggesting that corporate treasuries are still finding Bitcoin appealing at this range. While some of these entries might be viewed as attempts to hedge fiat risk, others appear purely speculative. The pending audit of major reserve holdings by regulators could add clarity—or confusion—depending on the outcome.
Any implications from the audit will be far-reaching, especially if questions arise about the transparency or liquidity behind large wallets. Those of us tracking cryptocurrency-linked contracts—futures or options—should be alert for heightened realised volatility following the audit’s release. Moreover, market makers may begin widening their bid/ask spreads in anticipation of order imbalance. That environment tends to reward shorter timeframes and clearly defined risk controls.
All told, we’re watching a moment where seemingly unrelated data points—oil, trade policy, and Bitcoin—are steering sentiment in ways that are both aggressive and reactive. While not every futures market reacts with the same intensity, the positioning ahead of early April will likely reflect those broader fears and bets. Short-term traders may look to reprice volatility or stretch term structures as we absorb each update.
