The White House has announced that the President has instructed his trade team to negotiate bespoke trade agreements with all countries expressing interest.
There remains uncertainty regarding whether these negotiations will occur alongside existing tariffs or if those will be suspended during discussions. Current indications suggest tariffs will remain in place, although the outcome is unpredictable.
Strategy Shift With Tailored Dialogue
This latest move from the administration reflects a direct strategy shift. Rather than relying on broader multinational forums or sticking strictly to preexisting frameworks, the aim is now tailored, country-by-country dialogue. It signals a willingness to use bilateral talks to extract specific terms, potentially offering more control over each individual arrangement. At the same time, the mechanics are still in flux.
While the White House has laid out the ambition clearly, they haven’t committed to removing tariffs during this process. Based on previous behaviour from the President’s team, and judging by the phrasing released so far, it’s more probable that current duties will be used as leverage, not paused. That means we’re likely dealing with a situation where talks proceed under what many might view as a form of pressure. It’s less about creating neutral ground and more about maintaining an upper hand.
From our perspective, what matters now is not just whether these agreements are agreed upon quickly or not, but how participants read the intent behind the negotiation framework. Markets are in no hurry to price in full outcomes yet, but that won’t stay the case long if formal talks begin immediately. In fact, we expect positioning to change fast – especially in contracts linked to global trade exposure.
Pricing on import-sensitive instruments should stay under watch. Where tariffs remain active, hedges could come under pressure due to added volatility. For us, that spells a short-term opportunity in contracts most vulnerable to policy shocks, particularly ahead of any formal negotiation schedule being announced.
Market Responses And Positioning
Lighthizer’s track record shows he’s not likely to yield tariff tools early. Based on past sessions, his tactic leans towards holding a firm line at the start, drawing initial concessions before easing. If that same approach carries over here, we can expect several rounds of movement in futures tied to commodity-import groupings. Particularly those with tighter correlation to North American rail and freight inputs.
We suggest a measured approach, especially where positions are exposed to bilateral swings. Make adjustments only where macro drivers are clear, and avoid doing too much at once — the beginning phase of a policy rollout tends to attract more chop than trend. Volume has been heavier around speculation dates, and that alone suggests we may see repeat behaviour as other countries express interest.
Volatility pricing in near-term options may look appealing, but for now stay focused on where spreads have diverged sharply. That’s going to serve better than outright situations, especially in the absence of direct detail. There is room for fast repricing, and historical analogues suggest the early announcements don’t always match by the time an agreement is inked.
Keep your bias on the side of lower visibility. While the headlines are bold, it is the silence between them that we’ve found tells the sharper story.
