China’s M2 money supply year-on-year in March registered at 7%, slightly below the projected 7.1%.
Gold remains steady around $3,250, supported by safe-haven demand and softer US inflation data. Meanwhile, the US Dollar trades around three-year lows.
Currency Performance
The EUR/USD pair has retreated to about 1.1300, moving away from a peak of 1.1473. This decline occurs despite Wall Street’s gains amid ongoing trade tensions and recession concerns.
GBP/USD has decreased to approximately 1.3050 after peaking near 1.3150.
The cryptocurrency market stabilises at a total capitalisation of $2.69 trillion, recovering from recent volatility.
While March’s year-on-year M2 money supply in China came in at 7%, it narrowly underperformed expectations by a tenth of a percentage point. That margin might seem trivial at first glance—but it suggests a slightly tighter liquidity stance than forecasted, even if only marginally. From a trading perspective, that small miss can still influence sentiment around monetary policy, especially at a time when global growth remains uncertain and markets tend to react sharply to potential shifts in central policy direction. It’s worth keeping in mind how even a modest deviation from target figures can ripple through asset classes, particularly those sensitive to credit dynamics in China.
Gold holding firm around $3,250—backed by steady demand as a safer store of value—continues to reflect how market participants are responding to ongoing weakness in consumer-price inflation out of the US. Lower inflation figures have historically lowered expectations for future rate hikes, which in turn adds to the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. What’s more, with rates likely to remain on pause or decline, yields on government bonds may continue offering less attractive returns, lending gold an added layer of passive support. We’ve seen this pattern stabilise over the past few weeks, and the consistency in gold’s resilience may deter short positioning in the near term.
On the currency front, the US Dollar continues to struggle, hovering near three-year lows. That’s a story of diminishing domestic yield premium and increased likelihood of dovish policy continuation. It adds some downward pull to the greenback broadly—but doesn’t explain the step-back seen in the euro. EUR/USD dropping to around 1.1300, despite a background of positive Wall Street performance, points to a divergence between risk assets and the single currency. The retreat could suggest traders are beginning to question growth projections in the Eurozone or perhaps locking in gains after the pair touched 1.1473. Either way, the hesitation around further upside in the pair opens the door for two-way price action. We might notice options pricing beginning to reflect that indecisiveness more prominently.
Cryptocurrency Market Trends
Sterling echoes similar themes. After climbing to levels near 1.3150, GBP/USD easing to 1.3050 suggests that the pound’s previous momentum wasn’t rooted in fresh bullish catalysts but rather in rate expectations that may already have been fully priced in. This pullback implies a pause for breath, rather than the start of a trend reversal. Any further softness in the pound may come more from positioning exhaustion than from fundamental deterioration.
Shifting to digital assets, the total crypto market cap clawing back to $2.69 trillion after prior volatility is notable. The bounce back indicates re-emerging confidence following some turbulence. We’ve observed a pattern where digital markets often absorb shocks more rapidly than traditional assets, likely due to the liquidity structure and lower institutional barriers. Price action suggests speculators have not withdrawn entirely—rather, capital flows continue to recalibrate. Expect implied volatility to remain elevated into the next options expiry cycle.
