Economic Reports and Data Releases Overview
The upcoming week features tier one data points, but the focus remains on US-China tariff negotiations.
Monday includes New Zealand Services PMI and NY Fed Consumer Inflation Expectations. Tuesday features the RBA Meeting Minutes, UK Employment Report, German ZEW, and Canada CPI. Wednesday lists Japan Tankan, China Industrial Production and Retail Sales, UK CPI, US Retail Sales, Industrial Production, and the BoC Policy Announcement. Thursday brings New Zealand Q1 CPI, Australia Employment Report, ECB Policy Announcement, US Housing Starts, and Jobless Claims. Friday presents Japan CPI but is impacted by the Good Friday Holiday.
Tuesday’s UK Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at 4.4%. Average Earnings may drop slightly from 5.8% to 5.7%, while Ex-Bonus Earnings might rise to 6.0% from 5.9%. Canadian CPI Y/Y is projected at 2.6% with a Trimmed-Mean at 3.0%. Inflation trends reflect recent tariff impacts.
Wednesday’s UK CPI Y/Y might slightly decrease to 2.7%. US Retail Sales could rise to 1.4%, with the BoC maintaining rates at 2.75%. Thursday’s New Zealand Q1 CPI Y/Y could increase to 2.3%.
The Australian Employment report anticipates 35K job additions, with a higher unemployment rate of 4.2%. The ECB may cut rates by 25 bps. Friday’s Japanese Core CPI is expected at 3.2%, affected by ongoing trade war developments.
Market Reactions and Trade Discussions
While the calendar for the week ahead remains heavy with high-tier data releases, markets are not reacting uniformly to the usual economic signals. The bulk of attention still orbits bilateral trade discussions, particularly those that will determine tariff structures between the two largest economies. This presents an environment where headline data alone may not fuel the bulk of market moves, and instead, we find sentiment shifting most responsively to diplomatic statements and unofficial briefings.
With that dynamic in motion, we begin the week watching New Zealand’s Services PMI, which may highlight the extent of domestic slowdown versus global drag. At the same time, the NY Fed’s Consumer Inflation Expectations offers us a sense of pricing pressures arguably more acute to consumer habits than traditional inflation prints.
Into Tuesday, the UK labour figures carry some weight, especially with Average Earnings possibly dipping. If Wages data undershoot, Sterling may struggle, particularly if the market interprets it as a sign of easing domestic demand. Howe, the broader interest will likely be on the Canadian inflation data. Forecasted at 2.6% year-on-year, the estimate still sits above the central bank’s target range. A stubborn Trimmed-Mean at 3.0% adds to the view that inflation dynamics are being influenced not purely by internal imbalances but from external cost drivers—some of which may stem from the now-active import taxes applied by North American trading partners.
Wednesday brings volume, both in terms of releases and potential volatility. The UK CPI likely dipping to 2.7% would place it within striking distance of the Bank of England’s target. This narrows the timing window for policy normalisation, but with services inflation yet to fully retreat, the narrative may still be viewed as incomplete.
US Retail Sales rising to 1.4% would suggest consumers are still spending through pressures, supported possibly by resilient employment levels and generous real wage movements. Yet it’s worth noting that retail gains often mask rotation—from durable to essential—so market reactions need internal breakdowns to determine whether it’s volume or price that’s driving the change.
The Bank of Canada is set to hold at 2.75%. There had been some speculation about a cut, but sticky inflation metrics and recent upward revisions to wage growth have dampened that expectation. If Governor Macklem delivers a more dovish tone despite holding rates, we may see rate-sensitive assets price in cuts sooner rather than later. That will depend how firmly he attributes inflation persistence to lagged shelter costs versus ongoing trade adjustments.
On Thursday, all eyes turn first to New Zealand with quarterly inflation seen edging up to 2.3%. That would interrupt the sequence of softer prints, and from our side, the more interesting angle lies in how markets react to signs that inflation is reaccelerating before growth has had a chance to lift. A higher outcome—paired with a softer Kiwi dollar—could shift rate path forecasts again toward longer holds or even an upward tweak if the central bank deems domestic inflation self-sustaining.
Australia’s labour market report’s forecast for 35,000 job additions clashes with the possibility of a higher unemployment rate. That mismatch points to an increase in participation, which markets typically view as healthy. But if job gains disappoint, the dollar may sell off, especially if paired with any signs in the participation data that discouraged workers are returning amid lower hiring quality.
The European Central Bank is painted into a corner this week. Traders expect a 25 basis point cut—not because the bloc’s data screams for it, but because forward guidance and inflation trends have leaned heavily into easing. Lagarde’s communication style plays a large role here. If the bank cuts and accompanies the move with language promising further caution, euro downside may be more contained.
Into the week’s close, Japan’s inflation print at 3.2% filters through the fog of external factors. We’re watching particularly how that number divides by sector, because pressures appear imported and linked to weakening currency pass-through. Until the Bank of Japan moves rates higher in a sustained cycle—a prospect still removed from current pricing—these price levels continue to strain purchasing power without locking in domestic wage cycles.
We monitor how positioning and implied volatilities respond to these releases. Short-term gamma exposure should be reduced ahead of CPI and central bank days, with layered strikes providing most efficient premium capture. Keep tight stops.
