The Forex market saw a quiet session on April 14, 2025, with Canadian wholesale trade data being the only notable economic release. The focus continued on tariffs, after recent U.S.-China tensions, with tariffs on Chinese goods increased to 145% and electronics temporarily excluded, only to face specific semiconductor tariffs later.
Market reactions were subdued, with stocks opening higher amid volatility. Fed Governor Chris Waller highlighted the economic disruptions from tariffs, noting March’s 12-month PCE inflation at 2.3% and core PCE at 2.7%. The economy grew modestly in Q1, with hopes for inflation moderation. Both inflation and unemployment projections suggested potential challenges depending on future tariff scenarios.
Market Performance Summary
Closing levels showed the S&P 500 up 0.79%, NASDAQ up 0.64%, and the Dow rising 0.78%. Mega-cap tech stocks like Amazon and Meta saw declines. Bond yields fell, with the 10-year yield at 4.35%. The USD had mixed performance against major currencies, with a notable 0.80% decrease against the GBP. In commodities, gold fell 0.78% while crude oil and silver saw slight increases. Bitcoin rose sharply by $1,045 to $84,756.
What we’ve seen so far paints a picture of restrained activity in the markets, with limited data flow and external factors picking up more attention than traditional economic indicators. The currency market remained muted, with little movement prompted by domestic figures, and we observed traders instead shifting their attention to ongoing tariff developments. The adjustment of U.S. tariffs on China—particularly the sharp increase to 145%—caused some reassessment in risk appetite. Electronics had initially been spared but are now due to fall under newly imposed levies on semiconductors, suggesting we may see further dislocations in tech-related exports and supply chains.
Waller provided a measured tone. His remarks on inflation—headline at 2.3%, core at 2.7%—suggest the Federal Reserve sees pricing pressures still above target, yet not escalating at a pace that would force a policy shift just yet. The economy’s expansion in the first quarter appeared constrained, not faltering entirely, but lacking momentum that’s usually seen when inflation expectations begin aligning with targets. Projections for both unemployment and inflation carry implications for future rate direction, especially if tariffs continue to press on production costs.
The modest gains in equities, as shown in the three leading indices, reflected a risk-on sentiment that isn’t fully committed. When we look closer, the weakness in mega-cap names, including those reliant on high-volume semiconductor components, implies that sentiment remains fragmented. Tech-heavy names pulled back, adding to the sense that market participants are rebalancing exposure rather than chasing yield.
Bond Market and Commodities Outlook
Bond markets reacted more clearly. A descent in yields, particularly in the benchmark 10-year note dropping to 4.35%, denotes higher demand for safety amid uncertainty over longer-term inflation risk. The mixed performance in the dollar—especially a sizeable pullback versus sterling—adds clarity. We might interpret this as an acknowledgment by investors that U.S. policy adjustments could carry costs not yet reflected in growth expectations.
Across commodities, energy shifted upward while gold gave back recent gains. That divergence points to anticipation of possible disruption in trade flow rather than outright fear. Traders in physical assets appear to be distinguishing between supply-side sensitivities and broad systemic shocks. We saw some grounding in precious metals, indicating that safe-haven positioning is not accelerating for now.
The outsized move in Bitcoin reinforces that capital continues to flow into assets perceived as insulated from central bank intervention. A rise of over $1,000 in a single session suggests speculative momentum as well as positioning around inflationary fears and fiat currency risk.
In the coming sessions, we can keep our attention trained on tariff-linked sectors, particularly trade-sensitive derivatives. Short-term pricing on futures tied to semiconductor firms, and those indirectly weighed by customs frictions, warrants close evaluation. Bond volatility should also supply opportunities, especially in shorter-duration products, as inflation data and revised forecasts become available.
We should be cautious around headline-driven movements, especially with economic data releases taking a backseat to policy headlines. Adjustments in directional strategy might be warranted depending on how pricing channels for tech and manufacturing goods react in the next few trading weeks. Volatility is not absent—it’s just lying beneath a layer of hesitation.
