Key Points
- TWINDEX closed at 1661.57, up 0.79% from the open, after peaking at 1663.32.
- Trump’s upcoming tech-focused tariffs expected to target semiconductors and display components, pushing firms toward U.S.-based production.
- Jefferies estimates only 22% of semiconductor/display content in an iPhone 16 Pro Max is U.S.-sourced—highlighting room for reshoring.
The TWINDEX surged sharply this week, climbing from a low of 1420.73 to a close of 1661.57 as traders priced in the anticipated shift in U.S. trade strategy toward the technology sector. The rally accelerated on Friday and held steady into Tuesday after a Jefferies research note suggested President Trump’s new wave of tech-centric tariffs will likely focus on semiconductors and display components, key inputs in high-end electronics.
Policy Shift Spurs Sector Repricing
Trump’s proposed tariffs mark a strategic pivot toward boosting domestic chip production, with analysts citing the iPhone 16 Pro Max as a benchmark example. According to Jefferies, only 22% of its semiconductor and display content is U.S.-sourced, with the majority still manufactured by TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix. The administration’s long-term goal appears to be a full reshoring of core tech production, a move likely to reshape global semiconductor supply chains.
Jefferies expects Samsung and SK Hynix to expand U.S. investments, following in the footsteps of TSMC, whose Arizona facility has already received multi-billion dollar backing. Markets are now pricing in greater capex allocations from Korean and Taiwanese tech giants—a likely tailwind for U.S.-based chip foundries and capital equipment providers.
Technical Analysis
The TWIndex continues to trade in a tight consolidation zone following a powerful breakout from 1420.73 to 1674.67, a move that unfolded between April 10 and 12. Since printing the local high, the price has flatlined just under resistance at 1675, with recent candles showing minimal volatility and low volume, suggesting a classic case of post-rally exhaustion or accumulation.
Picture: Rally pauses just under resistance as consolidation grips the TWIndex, as seen on the VT Markets app
Price remains above all key moving averages (5/10/30), which are tightly stacked and flattening out—signs of low momentum but also strong structural support. The MACD has been neutral for several sessions, its histogram hugging the zero line and signal lines running parallel. This indicates a lack of directional drive, but no meaningful bearish divergence yet.
If 1663–1675 breaks cleanly, the next leg up could begin. But if the base around 1640–1650 gives way, traders may look for a retest of the 1600–1620 support zone.
Rotation into U.S. Tech Manufacturing
The TWINDEX’s rally reflects rising optimism around reshoring incentives, with chipmakers, display suppliers, and electronics manufacturers all poised to benefit from future subsidies and tax breaks. Investors are also betting on second-order effects: stronger demand for U.S. industrials, logistics, and high-value engineering services tied to fab expansions.
With resistance now near 1675, and support holding firmly at 1640, a breakout above the recent high could initiate a new leg toward 1700, assuming policy announcements materialise into actionable investment flows. MACD stabilisation and the absence of selling pressure further support the bullish case in the short term.
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