The USDCAD currency pair is currently trading near its lowest levels since November. It is navigating a swing area between 1.3843 to 1.3900, which traders find attractive for its potential movement.

The USDCAD recently fell below its 200-day moving average for the first time since October 2024. This level, now at 1.3999 or 1.4000, marked a change in momentum once breached. The decline finds the pair back in a range between 1.3843 and 1.3898, previously a notable trading zone.

The pair briefly dropped below the lower limit yesterday but rebounded. It climbed above the upper limit today but has returned to the central area, as traders await further cues.

A rise above 1.3900 could target the 61.8% retracement at 1.3943, then look to the 200-day moving average at 1.4000. If the pair dips below 1.3843, increased selling pressure could occur, leading to a broader consolidation. This broader zone influenced trading between August 2022 and November 2024 and might result in further range-bound activity if support weakens.

The article outlines where the USDCAD currency pair stands technically, especially highlighting the importance of the wide band between 1.3843 and 1.3900. This zone has drawn attention because the pair has respected it repeatedly, acting as both support and resistance over different weeks. Now, with price oscillating once again in this same territory, we’re in familiar waters.

What’s just happened is this: after months of staying above the 200-day moving average—a longer-term trend indicator—the pair finally dipped below it. That line sat around 1.4000 and had held strong since October of last year. With price now south of it, this latest break offers a tangible shift in direction. Below that long-standing trend reference, the approach changes too. We’re not in a strongly upward market anymore, at least by that measure.

Yesterday’s dip under the 1.3843 level didn’t hold; the market snapped back up. This reaction tells us buyers have not let go entirely. Today, the price poked above the upper edge of the range but didn’t hold there either. It settled back into the band, suggesting that this zone is still defining near-term boundaries of interest. In that sense, fatigue among both bulls and bears is apparent.

Looking forward, movement outside either edge of this 1.3843 to 1.3900 corridor could encourage action. A break higher would open a clear technical target at 1.3943—the 61.8% retracement from a previous move down. That’s a level we typically see as a decision point. Beyond that lies the heavyweight: the 200-day average at 1.4000. The market will remember how well it held before losing ground.

On the flip side, slipping beneath 1.3843 again and sustaining it wouldn’t just disappoint buyers. It could turn the focus to a wider area that has attracted volume before, particularly back when the pair fluctuated between mid-2022 and last autumn. This range, already tested over multiple episodes, tends to slow directional moves and invite pullback-driven trading rather than straight-line trends.

As we approach the next few sessions, attention turns to how price behaves within this narrower holding pattern. If momentum fades and order volumes remain light, indecision may persist. If not, liquidity could dry up at one edge, leading to a squeeze in either direction. Momentum indicators, volume spikes, and response to macro events should help shed light on the likely path without requiring a crystal ball.

From our viewpoint, preparation hinges on response patterns at these key levels, not on any single forecast or bias. We watch price behave at these technical inflection points, knowing that breaks or rejections here often precede clearer directional plays. Whether reacting to fundamental catalysts or technical conditions, history tells us that once the crowd moves, it tends to move with purpose—until the next level interferes.