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    Aussie and Kiwi hold steady as bond rally fuels rate cut hopes

    August 1, 2024

    Key points:

    • The Australian dollar bounces from three-month lows; resistance at $0.6580.
    • Rate cut expectations influence bond rally, with key yields hitting lows.

    The Australian dollar (AUDUSD) held at $0.6540, recovering from a three-month low of $0.6480 overnight. Support lies around $0.6466, with resistance at $0.6580.

    Against the surging yen (AUDJPY), the Aussie lost 1.8% overnight, hitting its lowest since March at 97.35.

    Kiwi dollar rebounds as RBA rate hike expectations diminish

    The New Zealand dollar (NZDUSD) was up at $0.5954, rallying 0.8% from its recent three-month trough of $0.5859. Much of the kiwi’s move came as markets priced out any chance of a rate rise from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) following favourable inflation data.

    The chart shows the daily price movement of the NZD/USD pair. The trend indicates a slight increase of 0.05%. The opening price is 0.59421, the closing price is 0.59451, the high is 0.59627, and the low is 0.59395. The chart features moving averages (5, 10, 20, 30), highlighting a downward trend with prices trading below the moving averages. The MACD (26, 16, 9) histogram shows bearish momentum, with the MACD line below the signal line but starting to converge. Trading volume indicates consistent activity with a slight increase during the recent price dip and recovery. The chart reflects a cautious market sentiment for the NZD/USD pair.

    See: Kiwi trading at 0.59451 on the VT Markets app.

    Markets now imply a small chance of a cut at the RBA’s August 6 meeting, compared to a 20% risk of a hike before the data.

    They also suggest a 44% chance the 4.35% cash rate could be cut as early as November, while a quarter-point easing is priced at 76% for December.

    Major banks adjust rate cut forecasts; bond yields drop to April lows

    Among major banks, CBA also sees a first cut in November, while ANZ tips February and NAB expects May. The shift in outlook saw three-year bond futures (YTTc1) hit their highest since mid-April at 96.350, climbing 31 ticks in two sessions.

    Yields on 10-year bonds (AU10Y) also fell to the lowest since April at 4.051%.

    Fed’s dovish stance boosts expectations for early rate cuts

    Dovish commentary from the U.S. Federal Reserve enhanced the prospect of earlier easing. Futures now price in an 11% chance the Fed could cut rates by as much as 50 basis points in September.

    Across the Tasman, markets imply a 36% chance the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) could cut at its next meeting on August 14, and are fully priced for a move in October.

    Key two-year swap rates touched their lowest since late 2022 at 4.13%.

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