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    Copper prices dip with fear of U.S. recession

    August 12, 2024

    Key Points: 

    • Copper prices fell to $4.00 per pound last week due to fears of a US recession 
    • However, copper prices slightly improved after the announcement of positive US unemployment data. 
    • Markets are awaiting US consumer price data and China’s retail sales and industrial production figures, which could influence demand expectations for copper. 

    This is a follow up article to: Copper prices slide on China demand concerns  

    Copper (Symbol: Copper-C) prices began the week with a softer tone, reflecting ongoing global economic uncertainties. Early trading saw three-month copper prices drop to $4.00 per pound. 

    The Copper-C daily chart captures the price movement from February to August 2024, showing a 1.19% upward trend. The most recent session opened at $3.9845 and closed at $4.0321, with a high of $4.0427 and a low of $3.9656. The chart indicates a significant peak at $5.1644 earlier in the year, followed by a downward trend that has persisted into August. The Moving Averages (MA 5, 10, 30) reflect ongoing bearish sentiment as the price remains below these averages. However, the MACD (12, 26, 9) shows signs of potential convergence, suggesting that the selling pressure may be easing, and a reversal could be on the horizon. The current support level is around $3.6327, while resistance is faced near the recent closing price of $4.0347. Traders may be looking for confirmation of this potential reversal or a continuation of the downtrend in the coming sessions.

    Picture: Copper prices dip during global economic uncertainty, as observed on the VT Markets app

    Copper, often seen as a bellwether for the global economy, has been under pressure recently due to fears of a US recession. These concerns triggered a sharp sell-off in financial markets last week, leading to a dip in copper prices.

    However, sentiment improved slightly after US data showed a larger-than-expected drop in new unemployment benefit applications, suggesting some resilience in the US labour market. 

    The markets continue to observe

    Markets are now closely watching the upcoming US consumer price index (CPI) report, set to be released on Wednesday. Economists expect a 0.2% increase in both the headline and core CPI, with the annual core rate slowing to 3.2%.

    This data will be crucial in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next moves, which in turn could impact demand for industrial metals like copper. 

    In addition to US data, market participants are also looking forward to China’s retail sales and industrial production figures, due on Thursday. These indicators are expected to show continued underperformance in the Chinese economy, underlining the need for more stimulus.

    Given that China is the world’s largest consumer of copper, any signs of economic weakness there could weigh heavily on the metal’s demand outlook. 

    Risks and opportunities for copper traders 

    Such mixed economic signals from the US and China suggest that copper prices could experience further volatility in the near term, creating opportunities for scalping.

    The recent dip in copper prices could also encourage buying interest, particularly if China’s data shows signs of stabilising demand. 

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