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    Gold at Record Highs with Election Uncertainty

    October 18, 2024

    Key points

    • Gold is trading at $2,694.99 per ounce, close to its record high of $2,696.59.
    • Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and geopolitical tensions are driving demand for gold.

    Spot gold held its position at $2,694.99 per ounce as of early Friday morning, maintaining momentum after reaching a new record high of $2,696.59 the previous day.

    The metal has risen over 1% this week, reflecting strong demand amidst the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election and ongoing Middle East tensions.

    U.S. gold futures also ticked higher, up 0.1% to $2,710.20 per ounce, underlining the strength in gold’s current upward trend.

    See: Gold is showing a bullish trend with upward momentum but it faces short-term resistance around 2714 on the VT Markets app.

    Gold Rises as U.S. Election Tensions and Geopolitical Unrest Increase

    With the U.S. presidential election approaching, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are making their final pushes to rally voters.

    The heated political environment is one of the key drivers of the recent surge in gold prices, as market participants often turn to gold during times of uncertainty. 

    The political backdrop is further complicated by the recent killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar by Israeli forces, which may prolong the conflict in the Middle East.

    This geopolitical instability is another factor boosting gold’s safe-haven appeal.

    The economic data out of the U.S. has been robust, pointing to an economy in good shape.

    Despite this, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates in November, with traders assigning an 88% probability of a rate cut, according to the CME Fedwatch tool.

    Lower interest rates make gold more attractive since it does not generate interest, leading to an increased likelihood of traders hedging through gold.

    Swiss Gold Exports Decline, Yet Bullish Gold Prices Persist

    In the physical market, Swiss gold exports fell in September to their lowest level since June.

    The reduction in shipments, especially to India, points to some weakness in physical demand. However, this has not been enough to offset the broader bullish trend seen in gold prices.

    Other precious metals, including silver and platinum, are also performing well.

    Spot silver rose 0.2% to $31.76 per ounce, while platinum steadied at $991.60, both tracking towards weekly gains. Palladium, on the other hand, edged down slightly, falling 0.1% to $1,040.75 per ounce.

    See also: Gold Nears Record Highs on U.S. Data

    Gold’s position near its record peak reflects traders’ growing concerns about global instability.

    We anticipate that if geopolitical tensions continue and central banks keep easing monetary policy, gold could see further upside in the coming weeks.

    However, any shifts in the economic or political landscape could introduce volatility into the market.

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