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    Gold Hits Fresh High as Trade War and Rate Cut Bets Grow

    February 5, 2025

    Key Points:

    • XAUUSD surges past $2,850, hitting an all-time high as risk sentiment weakens.
    • US-China trade war escalates, with Beijing retaliating against US tariffs.
    • Market bets on two Fed rate cuts, driven by weak US economic data.

    Gold (XAUUSD) rallied to $2,853.85 on Wednesday, marking a fresh all-time high as market participants flocked to safe-haven assets. The surge followed US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, reigniting fears of a prolonged trade war.

    While Trump paused tariffs on Mexico and Canada, Beijing responded with its own levies on US energy exports, including oil, gas, and coal.

    Meanwhile, Trump’s remarks on US control over the Gaza Strip added further geopolitical uncertainty, boosting demand for the safe-haven asset.

    Technical Analysis

    Image: XAUUSD gains 1.24%, holding firm above key support as bullish momentum pushes price towards the 2853.85 resistance level, as seen on the VT Markets app.

    We can see from the 15-minute chart that XAUUSD closed at 2849.00, gaining 1.24% from its opening at 2814.24, with a session high of 2853.85. The price continues its upward trajectory, maintaining bullish momentum despite minor pullbacks.

    Short-term moving averages (MA 5,10,30) confirm the strength of the trend, with shorter MAs positioned above the longer-term MA. The price is holding above these key levels, suggesting sustained buying interest.

    The MACD (12,26,9) aligns with this bullish sentiment. The MACD line is above the signal line, and the histogram remains positive, indicating upward momentum. However, the decreasing histogram bars suggest a possible slowdown in buying pressure.

    Immediate resistance is at 2853.85, the session high, while support is seen at 2798.49, a level that previously provided strong buying interest. A break above resistance could extend the rally, while a drop below support may trigger a corrective pullback.

    Economic Data Fuels Fed Rate Cut Bets

    Market expectations for two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year gained traction after US job openings dropped in the latest JOLTS report, while factory orders declined to a six-month low.

    With weaker economic indicators, the Fed may be forced to ease monetary policy sooner than expected, further supporting XAUUSD.

    Market Outlook: Can XAUUSD Hold Above $2,850?

    With Gold now consolidating near its record peak, traders will be watching for any further escalations in US-China trade tensions and key US economic data in the coming days.

    If risk sentiment deteriorates, XAUUSD could push beyond $2,860, while a shift in Fed rhetoric or easing geopolitical risks may lead to a short-term pullback.

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