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    Gold Rises to One-Week High as Dollar Eases

    November 19, 2024

    Key Points:

    • Gold rose to $2,625.54, up 2.5% since 16 November, supported by dollar softness and geopolitical risks.
    • Technical indicators show sustained bullish momentum, with MACD divergence and aligned moving averages confirming strength.

    Gold prices extended their upward trajectory, climbing to a high of $2,625.54 on Tuesday, as shown in the attached chart.

    Picture: Gold rides bullish momentum as market uncertainty supports safe-haven demand, as seen on the VT Markets app.

    The price closed at $2,622.64, marking steady gains from last week’s low of $2,559.52.

    The rally reflects a combination of dollar weakness, Middle Eastern conflict, and strong bullish momentum in the market.

    Weaker Dollar Boosts Bullion

    The U.S. dollar’s retreat, attributed to profit-booking after last week’s strong rally, made gold more affordable for buyers holding other currencies.

    Fed Comments Key to Rate Outlook

    Traders are closely watching Federal Reserve officials’ comments this week for guidance on rate decisions at the December meeting.

    Markets are seeing a 58.8% probability of a 25-basis-point cut, with a 41.2% chance of rates remaining steady. Lower interest rates tend to support gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

    Tensions in Eastern Europe Support Safe-Haven Demand

    Russia’s largest airstrike on Ukraine in three months has amplified geopolitical risks, further supporting safe-haven assets like gold. Meanwhile, tight labour market conditions in the U.S. continue to sustain inflationary pressures, adding to the complexity of the Fed’s rate outlook.

    Cautious Outlook for Gold

    Gold’s movement in the near term hinges on upcoming Fed commentary and market reactions to geopolitical developments.

    If the dollar stabilises or Fed commentary skews dovish, gold could test higher levels, though resistance near $2,650 may limit gains.

    For now, traders should monitor the interplay of dollar strength, interest rate expectations, and geopolitical risk for cues on bullion’s trajectory.

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