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    Oil Prices Edge Up on OPEC+ Uncertainty

    November 29, 2024

    Key Points:

    • Oil prices saw slight gains on Friday, with Brent and WTI crude ticking upwards due to concerns over geopolitical tensions.
    • A delay in the OPEC+ meeting to Dec. 5 adds to the market’s uncertainty, with analysts predicting a further extension of production cuts.

    Brent crude futures rose 10 cents, or 0.1%, to $73.42 a barrel by 0516 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 45 cents, or 0.7%, to $69.13 per barrel, compared to the previous session’s closing price.

    Picture: Brent and WTI prices show a slight recovery on Friday, but still post weekly losses, as seen on the VT Markets app.

    Despite the modest uptick in prices, both benchmarks recorded weekly losses, with Brent futures down 2.4% and WTI trading 2.9% lower for the week. Trading volumes remained light due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, which kept U.S. financial markets closed on Thursday.

    Ceasefire Tensions and Supply Risk

    The oil market remained on edge after Israel and Hezbollah exchanged accusations of ceasefire violations on Thursday, following the agreement that had been brokered earlier in the week.

    The ceasefire deal had initially eased concerns over potential supply disruptions from a broader conflict in the region, which had previously added a risk premium to oil prices.

    See also: Oil Steadies with Ceasefire and OPEC+ Meeting

    However, oil supplies from the Middle East have been largely unaffected so far, despite the ongoing military engagements between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, and between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.

    OPEC+ Meeting Delay

    Further support for oil prices came from OPEC+ news. The group, which includes major oil producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, announced a delay in its next policy meeting, pushing the meeting date from December 1 to December 5.

    This delay has given investors more time to digest the potential outcomes of the meeting, where OPEC+ is expected to extend its existing production cuts.

    Black Sea Tensions

    Russia’s military activity in Ukraine remained a concern, with reports of airstrikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Analysts noted that such attacks could provoke retaliation, which might have an impact on Russian oil supply.

    Meanwhile, Iran made headlines after announcing plans to install over 6,000 additional uranium-enriching centrifuges at its nuclear facilities, which could lead to further tension with Western powers.

    Goldman Sachs analysts have indicated that if sanctions on Iranian oil tighten, supply could decrease by up to 1 million barrels per day in the first half of 2025.

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