Key points:
Oil prices remained steady in early Asian trading on Friday, with Brent crude futures dipping by a cent to $77.21 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures inching up by 4 cents to $73.05 per barrel.
Despite this minor stability, both benchmarks are set to close the week on a lower note, with Brent crude down approximately 3% and WTI nearly 5% lower.
See: Oil prices under pressure as seen on the VT Markets app.
More immediately, we see the CL-OIL-ECN (Crude Oil) chart reflecting a recent downward trend, with the price currently at $72.901 after reaching a low of $71.461. We see this decline largely attributed to revised U.S. employment data, which has raised concerns about the demand outlook for oil.
The weaker employment figures suggest that economic activity may be slowing, which could reduce demand for crude oil in the near term.
The chart shows the price trading below key Moving Averages (MAs) of 5, 10, and 30 periods, indicating that bearish momentum remains in control. The MACD indicator further supports this outlook, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line and the histogram showing increasing negative momentum. This suggests that the downward trend could continue if the economic data continues to point towards a softer U.S. economy.
Traders should keep an eye on the support level near $71.461, as a break below this level could signal further declines. On the upside, resistance around $73.171 could cap any potential rebounds.
The U.S. government’s sharp reduction in job growth estimates for the year through March has sparked concerns about the potential for a recession in the world’s largest oil-consuming nation.
These concerns were compounded by recent data from China, the top oil importer, indicating a slowdown in economic activity and a corresponding decrease in oil demand from refiners.
Market sentiment has been further influenced by ongoing ceasefire talks in Gaza. The discussions between U.S. and Israeli delegations in Cairo have eased fears of supply disruptions, adding downward pressure on oil prices.
However, oil prices may find support in the coming weeks.
Global oil inventories have been declining over the past two months, indicating that supply growth is not keeping pace with demand. This trend could help prices recover, with Brent crude potentially returning to the $85 to $90 range in the near future.
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