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    USDCHF Dips After Five-Day Rally

    January 15, 2025

    Key Points

    • USD/CHF retreats from highs near 0.9200, dropping to 0.9115 before stabilising at 0.9125.
    • Resistance at 0.9200/0.9239 remains intact, with bearish momentum reflected in MACD indicators.
    • Focus shifts to U.S. inflation data for near-term directional cues.

    USD/CHF declined on Monday, retreating from a recent high of 0.92008 to test intraday lows at 0.91148, before stabilising at 0.91255. This marks a pause in the pair’s five-day advance as it struggles to breach resistance at 0.9200/39.

    The pullback aligns with broader market caution ahead of crucial U.S. inflation data, which could significantly influence the dollar’s trajectory.

    Strong Non-Farm Payroll numbers have bolstered the dollar, but caution prevails as traders await U.S. inflation data for clearer signals on the Fed’s next steps.

    Meanwhile, the Swiss franc remains sensitive to its safe-haven appeal, which has been tempered by improving global risk sentiment. The Bank of Switzerland’s dovish stance compared to the Fed’s hawkish tone adds additional pressure on the franc.

    As the pair dips toward support, traders are navigating the tug-of-war between dollar strength and global risk dynamics.

    Technical Analysis

    Picture: USD/CHF stabilises near 0.9170 as bullish momentum builds, testing key resistance at 0.9200 amidst shifting central bank sentiment, as seen on the VT Markets app.

    The Swissy traded near 0.9170 with short-term bullish momentum. The moving averages signal a potential climb, with immediate support sitting at 0.9150. Resistance lies just ahead at 0.9200—breaking above it could open doors to 0.9250.

    Recent U.S. Non-Farm Payroll data has lent strength to the dollar, fueling the pair’s gains, but all eyes are now on upcoming U.S. inflation data.

    A breakout above 0.9200 would confirm bullish momentum, while a dip below 0.9150 could reignite bearish sentiment.

    As the pair balances between slowing U.S. economic growth and the ECB’s hawkish stance, traders remain cautious. Upcoming U.S. retail sales and Eurozone CPI data could provide fresh momentum. Any shifts in Fed rhetoric will also shape market sentiment and direction.

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