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    Wheat poised for largest monthly decline in 2 years due to harvest pressure

    June 28, 2024

    Key points:

    • Chicago wheat prices remained stable on Friday, holding on to gains from the previous session due to strong demand.
    • The market is on track for its largest monthly decline in two years, driven by harvest pressures across the northern hemisphere.
    • Corn and soybeans made modest gains but are set for losses in June.

    The most active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) held steady at $5.79-1/2 a bushel as of 0034 GMT.

    Corn rose by 0.2% to $4.23-1/4 a bushel, and soybeans increased by 0.2% to $11.07-1/4 a bushel. Wheat prices have fallen close to 15% in June, marking the most significant decline since June 2022.

    Wheat harvests drive prices down in June

    Chart displaying the Wheat-C futures with a trend of 3.35%, opening at 5.373 and closing at 5.553. The chart highlights a 4-hour interval, showing recent price movements with a high of 5.576 and a low of 5.538. This image is hosted at VT Markets, a forex CFDs brokerage, for the article titled 'Wheat poised for largest monthly decline in 2 years due to harvest pressure.' Harvests in top exporting regions and increased forecasts by the European Commission are driving the price decline.

    Picture: The downside prevails for wheat prices as seen on the VT Markets app.

    Harvests of wheat in top exporting regions in the northern hemisphere are applying seasonal pressure on prices. The European Commission recently raised its forecast for the EU’s main wheat crop this year and increased its export forecasts for both the current and next seasons.

    You might be interested: Wheat prices fall to lowest level since April due to increased supply, strong dollar

    In Argentina, wheat planting for the current harvest season has progressed rapidly due to recent rainfall in key farming areas, according to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange.

    IGC raises global corn production forecast for 2024/25

    The International Grains Council (IGC) has raised its forecast for 2024/25 global corn production, primarily due to an improved outlook for Brazil’s crop.

    The council’s monthly update increased the forecast by 3 million metric tons to 1.223 billion tons, although this remains slightly below last season’s 1.226 billion tons. 

    Wheat demand rises as traders anticipate USDA reports

    Wheat exports to Egypt and Algeria signal strong demand. Traders await Friday’s USDA reports on stocks and 2024 acreage. On Thursday, commodity funds sold CBOT corn, soybeans, and soyoil futures but bought wheat and soymeal.

    Global stocks rose slightly, and U.S. Treasury yields dipped after economic reports indicated slowing momentum.

    The upcoming USDA reports will likely influence market movements and provide further insight into crop expectations. The cautious forecast for wheat, corn, and soybeans suggests continued volatility, with potential opportunities for strategic positioning based on emerging data.


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