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Chicago wheat futures climbed by a slight 0.1% to $5.69-1/4 a bushel early Tuesday. This gain reflects traders’ cautious response to the USDA’s latest data showing that only 41% of the U.S. winter wheat crop is in good-to-excellent condition—the second lowest level since records began in 1986.
This poor start could set the stage for future price increases if yields continue to come under pressure.
See: Wheat prices are consolidating in a narrow range between 5.452 and 5.713, showing limited momentum on the VT Markets app.
Wheat’s minor uptick came as markets turned their focus toward the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, which may influence agricultural trade policies.
A potential shift in U.S. tariffs on agricultural goods under different administrations could affect export flows, especially given the reliance on international buyers.
Corn and soybean futures remained largely unchanged but supported by U.S. export demand. Corn futures dipped slightly by 0.1% to $4.16-1/4 a bushel, while soybean futures saw a modest 0.1% gain, trading at $9.98-1/4 per bushel.
Supply concerns remain central to price stability in the agricultural sector. Wheat futures, in particular, had fallen to a four-year low but have seen some recovery as crop conditions worsen.
Dry planting conditions have hit the U.S. wheat crop hard and affected yields in Australia, Argentina, and the Black Sea region.
In the U.S., recent rainfall brought some relief to critical cropping zones, improving planting conditions slightly, yet drought effects linger.
Argentina has benefited from rain in its southern agricultural zones, which bolstered wheat crops there, according to the Rosario Grains Exchange.
Elsewhere, export competition is weighing on global wheat markets, with Egypt’s state grain buyer, GASC, purchasing 290,000 metric tons of wheat from various Black Sea suppliers.
The substantial offers of Black Sea wheat highlight an increasingly competitive export market and have added pressure on Euronext wheat prices.
U.S. corn exports have picked up as harvests begin winding down. Monday’s USDA report indicated fresh deals, with U.S. exporters selling 150,000 metric tons of corn to Mexico and 120,000 tons of corn, along with 132,000 tons of soybeans, to unidentified buyers.
Increased sales come as lower crop prices bolster export demand.
See also: Soybean Slides on Oversupply, Election Worries
Traders now await Friday’s USDA report, expected to provide updated supply, demand, and stockpile estimates. These insights will likely influence short-term price movements across wheat, corn, and soybeans, especially as traders weigh potential future demand against current stockpile levels.
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