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    Yuan Steady as PBOC Pauses Bond Purchases

    January 10, 2025

    Key Point

    • The offshore yuan (CNH) stabilised around 7.35 per dollar after the PBOC unexpectedly paused government bond purchases.
    • China’s consumer prices rose 0.1% YoY in December, the lowest inflation rate since March, while producer prices fell 2.3% YoY.

    The offshore yuan held steady at 7.35 per dollar after the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) surprised markets with its decision to halt government bond purchases due to a supply shortage temporarily.

    This unexpected move follows months of PBOC interventions to manage liquidity and address warnings of potential bubbles in the bond market. Long-dated yields repeatedly hit record lows as traders flocked to safe-haven assets amid a slowing economy.

    The central bank clarified that bond purchases would resume based on supply-demand conditions, signalling a flexible approach to managing liquidity.

    Technical Analysis

    As Inauguration Day of President-elect Donald Trump draws closer, market participants are keeping a close eye on further inflation reports and data releases from key Asian markets.

    Picture: USDCNH consolidates with recovering bullish momentum as traders weigh diverging US and Chinese policies, as seen on the VT Markets app.

    The Yuan closed slightly lower at 7.3533 after testing intraday lows near 7.3426. Short-term moving averages indicated an upward trend but flattened quickly, highlighting some market indecision. That said, the MACD crossed into positive territory, with indicators of recovering bullish momentum.

    Yuan Outlook and Market Implications

    The PBOC’s cautious stance on bond purchases suggests a balancing act between preventing liquidity shortages and avoiding asset bubbles.

    The yuan is likely to remain under pressure in the near term as economic challenges persist. Soft inflation and prolonged producer deflation point to subdued growth.

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