Week Ahead: All Eyes on FOMC Meeting Minutes and ECB, BOJ Rate Decisions

July 24, 2023

This week’s economic calendar includes important events that can significantly impact the markets: the FOMC Meeting Minutes, as well as the ECB and BOJ Rate Decisions. Traders should be well-prepared for potential market volatility resulting from these announcements and be ready to adjust their strategies accordingly.

Keep an eye on the following economic releases:

German, UK and US Flash Manufacturing PMI (24 July 2023)

Germany’s Manufacturing PMI experienced a downward revision in June 2023, reaching 40.6. In contrast, the UK’s PMI was revised upward to 46.5, while the US confirmed a PMI of 46.3, marking a six-month low. 

The figures for July 2023 will be released on 24 July. Analysts predict Manufacturing PMIs as follows: Germany at 40, the UK at 46, and the US at 46.

German, UK and US Flash Services PMI (24 July 2023)

US Services PMI was revised slightly higher to 54.4 in June 2023, while Germany’s was confirmed at 54.1, the lowest reading in three months. UK’s was confirmed at 53.7, the lowest in three months. 

Analysts predict Services PMIs for July 2023 as follows: Germany at 53.3, the UK at 53, and the US at 54.

Australia Consumer Price Index (26 July 2023) 

The annual inflation rate in Australia declined to 7% in Q1 2023, falling from an over-30-year high of 7.8% in the previous period. This marked the lowest recorded rate since Q2 2022. 

Looking ahead, analysts are forecasting a slower growth rate of 6.3% for the data covering the year up to June 2023. This information is scheduled for release on 26 July.

US FOMC Meeting Minutes (26 July 2023) 

The Fed decided to maintain its funds rate target at 5.25% in June 2023. Following the FOMC decision, the Fed Chair emphasised multiple times the necessity of raising rates further within the current year. 

For the upcoming meeting on 26 July, analysts forecast that the Fed will raise its interest rates to 5.5%.

European Central Bank Main Refinancing Rate (27 July 2023)

In its June meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised its key interest rates by 25 bps to 4%. The ECB made it clear that future decisions would rely on incoming data and underscored its commitment to adopting a meeting-by-meeting approach in light of the uncertain economic environment, particularly as interest rates were nearing a potential peak level. 

For the upcoming 27 July meeting, analysts expect the central bank to implement another 25 bps increase to 4.25%.

US Advance GDP (27 July 2023)

The US economy expanded at an annualised rate of 2% on a quarter-on-quarter basis in Q1 2023. This growth was higher than the previous second estimate of 1.3%. 

The figures for Q2 2023 will be released on 27 July, with analysts projecting a slower growth rate of 1.9%. 

BOJ Rate Statement (28 July 2023) 

In its June meeting, the Bank of Japan decided to maintain its key short-term interest rate at -0.1% and kept the 10-year bond yields at 0%. 

For its upcoming meeting on 28 July, analysts anticipate the central bank to maintain the current interest rate levels.