Stock markets rebound amid Fed’s dovish outlook and mixed currency movements

March 7, 2024

Wednesday saw a notable rebound in major U.S. stock indices, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all recording gains, despite mixed performances across sectors and continued concerns over a troubled regional bank. The positive shift in the stock market contrasted with a decline in the U.S. dollar following dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who hinted at potential rate cuts later in the year. This news, coupled with movements in the currency markets and Powell’s testimony on Capitol Hill, influenced trader sentiments, leading to fluctuations across a broad spectrum of financial markets, from major currency pairs to commodities like gold and Bitcoin.

Stock Market Updates

Stock markets witnessed a positive shift on Wednesday, rebounding from consecutive losses in prior sessions, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average making gains. The S&P 500 climbed by 0.51% to 5,104.76, the Nasdaq increased by 0.58% to 16,031.54, and the Dow rose modestly by 0.2% to 38,661.05, despite a notable drop in Disney shares. This upward movement provided a temporary relief from the recent downturns that had pulled the indexes away from their record highs. However, the gains were somewhat limited due to Apple’s continued decline and growing concerns over a troubled regional bank, impacting the broader market sentiment.

The day also saw mixed performances in the technology sector and fluctuations in regional bank stocks, influenced by New York Community Bancorp’s announcement of a $1 billion capital raise, which initially sent shares plummeting before recovering to close 7.5% higher. Attention was also focused on Capitol Hill, where Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated a potential lowering of interest rates later in the year, citing the current peak of the tightening cycle. Powell’s remarks came during his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, ahead of a scheduled appearance before the Senate Banking Committee, signaling a cautious yet optimistic outlook for future monetary policy adjustments.

Currency Market Updates

The currency market experienced significant movements as recent economic data and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell influenced trader sentiments. The USD index saw a decline of 0.46% after disappointing ADP and JOLTS reports suggested that previous Federal Reserve rate hikes were beginning to impact the U.S. economy, hinting at a potential slowdown that could help steer inflation towards the Fed’s 2% target. Powell’s semi-annual monetary policy testimony further pressured the dollar as he hinted at the possibility of easing monetary restraint later in the year, acknowledging the progress towards achieving the 2% inflation target. These developments led to a dip in U.S. Treasury yields and bolstered expectations for rate cuts in 2024, overall weighing down on the dollar across the board.

In response to the dovish outlook presented by the Federal Reserve, major currency pairs saw notable movements. The EUR/USD pair rose by 0.42%, benefiting from the narrowing yield differentials between U.S. and European bonds, which encouraged investors to add to their long positions in the Euro. Similarly, the USD/JPY pair declined by 0.5% as the prospect of lower Fed rates and speculation about the Bank of Japan normalizing rates led to a reduction in USD/JPY long positions. The GBP/USD pair also gained, moving to a session high, driven by expectations that the Bank of England might maintain higher interest rates compared to the U.S. for a longer period. Commodity currencies like the AUD benefited from the dovish Fed stance, with the AUD/USD rallying by more than 1%. Additionally, Bitcoin and gold prices surged, benefiting from the lower interest rate environment, with gold reaching a new all-time high, highlighting the broad impact of Fed policies on financial markets.

Picks of the Day Analysis

EUR/USD (4 Hours)

EUR/USD Surges Past 1.0900 Amid Dollar Weakness and Interest Rate Speculations

EUR/USD experienced a notable surge, breaking through the critical 1.0900 mark to reach multi-week highs, driven by a weakened US Dollar in response to disappointing ADP report outcomes and an uneventful testimony from Fed Chair Powell. Concurrently, the US Dollar Index (DXY) saw a decline for the fourth consecutive session, reaching five-week lows, amid anticipations of a potential Fed rate cut in June and declining US yields. Despite the downward trend in global yields, Germany’s 10-year bund yields showed slight increases, indicating caution ahead of an upcoming ECB event. With the Fed hinting at possible rate cuts within the year contingent on inflation trends, and the ECB projected to commence its easing cycle soon, the short-term outlook suggests a potentially stronger Dollar, especially if both central banks initiate easing measures around the same time. However, this scenario posits a deeper correction for EUR/USD, with an immediate target near its year-to-date low of 1.0700, possibly extending to late 2023 lows in the 1.0500 region.

Chart EUR/USD by TradingView

On Thursday, the EUR/USD moved higher and was able to reach the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is moving just below the upper band, suggesting a potential upward movement to reach above the next resistance level. Notably, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) maintains its position at 68, signaling a bullish outlook for this currency pair.

Resistance: 1.0926, 1.0984

Support: 1.0875, 1.0812