Week ahead: Markets to focus on Bank of Japan rate decision and UK, Canada inflation data

December 18, 2023

This week, the market’s focus will primarily revolve around the Bank of Japan’s rate decision. Investors are eagerly anticipating any statements from the bank’s governor Kazuo Ueda, especially after observing the impact of the strong Japanese Yen arising from a weakening US Dollar. In addition to this, consumer price index (CPI) and gross domestic product (GDP) data for various regions will also be released, possibly further affecting the market.

As always, traders are advised to exercise caution as we approach these significant market highlights for the week:

Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision (19 December 2023)

Following its October meeting, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained its key short-term interest rate at -0.1% and held 10-year bond yields steady at approximately 0%.

No changes are expected in the BOJ’s upcoming rate statement, scheduled for release on 19 December.

Canada CPI (19 December 2023)

Canada’s CPI rose by 0.1% month-over-month in October 2023, rebounding from a 0.1% decline in September.

Analysts expect a decrease of 0.2% in the CPI figures for November, scheduled for release on 19 December. 

UK annual CPI (20 December 2023)

The UK’s annual CPI data reflected a decline in the UK’s inflation rate, from 6.7% in August and September 2023 to 4.6% in October 2023.

Analysts expect the UK’s annual CPI to drop further to 4.3% in the next set of updated figures, scheduled for release on 20 December.

US final GDP (21 December 2023)

The US economy saw an annualised expansion of 5.2% in Q3 2023, surpassing a preliminary estimate of 4.9% and marking the strongest growth since Q4 2021.

Analysts expect a 5.2% expansion in the US economy to be confirmed following the release of updated GDP data on 21 December. 

UK retail sales (22 December 2023)

Retail sales in the UK declined by 0.3% month-over-month in October 2023 following a revised 1.1% decrease in September.

Analysts expect a 0.5% increase in the next set of UK retail sales figures, scheduled for release on 22 December.

Canada GDP (22 December 2023)

The Canadian economy grew by 0.1% in September 2023, primarily propelled by a 0.3% increase in goods-producing industries. This also marked its first upturn in six months.

Analysts expect a 0.2% increase in the next set of GDP data for Canada, slated for release on 22 December.

US core PCE price index (22 December 2023)

Core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) prices for the US increased by 0.2% in October 2023, marking a slight easing from the 0.3% rise observed in September.

Analysts expect a 0.2% increase in the core PCE price index for the US following the release of updated data on 22 December.