USD/JPY reached 149.65 as attention turns to Trump’s proposed reciprocal tariffs, set for 2 April. Japan may face increased tariffs on its car exports, which constituted 28% of the nation’s exports to the US in 2024.
Currently, the US imposes a 2.5% tariff on imported Japanese cars, with potential increases affecting demand. Japan’s rice and meat products also face high tariffs, presenting risks to the Yen from possible direct tariff impacts.
Near Term Yen Outlook
Near-term JPY trends may be influenced by dividend seasonality, while technical indicators suggest a bias to sell rallies. Key resistance levels are at 150, 151.50, and 152, with support at 148.30 and 147.
The Dollar-Yen pair has edged higher to 149.65, with attention now shifting towards the proposed reciprocal tariffs. These tariffs, planned for 2 April, could bring fresh pressure on Japan’s key export sectors, especially automobiles, which made up over a quarter of its exports to the United States this year.
At present, Washington imposes a 2.5% duty on incoming Japanese vehicles, but an increase could dampen demand. Beyond cars, agricultural exports such as rice and meat also face steep tariffs, adding another layer of potential strain on the Yen should Japan’s trade balance weaken. Previous tariff shocks have triggered repricing in the currency market, so the focus will be on how Tokyo responds.
Technical Levels To Watch
Seasonal flows may also play a role in shaping movements over the short term. Dividend-related repatriation could lend support to JPY demand as capital returns home, though this effect tends to be temporary. Even so, traders appear inclined to sell into upward moves based on technical readings.
Key resistance levels are set at 150, 151.50, and 152. If those levels hold, downward moves may find support around 148.30 and 147. Given the current backdrop, monitoring both policy developments and price action will be essential.
