NZDUSD is experiencing downward pressure as it struggles to break key resistance levels, resulting in sellers gaining control. The price has fallen below important moving averages after a failed attempt to reach the 38.2% retracement level at 0.5844.
The week began with a movement above last week’s swing highs, but sustaining gains proved difficult, leading to increased selling pressure. The price has now dropped below the 100-day moving average at 0.57425, indicating bearish movement.
Key Support Levels
The next support levels to watch are the 100-bar and 200-bar MAs on the 4-hour chart. Historical performance shows strong support at the 200-bar MA, located at 0.56983.
The bearish outlook continues as long as the price remains below the 100-day MA, with potential targets being 0.57716 if buyers regain momentum. Rebounding could bring resistance at levels 0.5771 and 0.5817.
Recent failures to sustain higher levels reinforce the broader downward structure. Price movement has repeatedly struggled to gain footing above resistance, giving sellers greater influence. Stevenson’s observation on the retracement failure at 0.5844 reflected this, as rejection at that level pushed price beneath widely observed moving averages.
With the decline below the 100-day moving average, bearish sentiment has strengthened. Prices have tested this level before, but the inability to hold above it suggests that selling momentum remains intact. Current positioning suggests traders have adjusted to reflect this shift, aligning short-term positioning with longer-term weakness.
Resistance Challenges
Attention now shifts to the support markers on the 4-hour chart, both of which hold weight due to past interactions. Wright pointed out how the 200-bar moving average at 0.56983 has historically provided a foundation for reversals. If this level fails under pressure, further downside risk increases, as prior recoveries from this area have been met with volume-driven interest.
Despite prevailing downside movement, any attempt to reclaim lost ground would require breaching resistance around 0.5771 and 0.5817, both levels that previously capped upward moves. Buyers have struggled to maintain presence at these points, but should strength emerge, a move through these thresholds would demand attention.
For now, price remains below the 100-day moving average, keeping sellers in control. Shorter-term recoveries remain possible but face clear obstacles. Any deviation from current direction warrants close monitoring, particularly if momentum shifts against prevailing trends.
