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The EURUSD opened the day lower, reaching levels not seen since March 5, primarily due to worries over Trump’s auto tariffs. The price rebounded from a support area that included the 38.2% retracement of the recent upswing and the 200-day moving average.
During the recovery, the price fluctuated within a range between 1.07609 and 1.07767 before rising further. Resistance encountered at the 100-hour moving average near 1.0797 holds importance, with a break above this point indicating potential for further gains.
Short Term Resistance Levels
If the price breaks and holds above this level, the next targets will be the swing area between 1.0808 and 1.0818, followed by the 200-hour MA at 1.08457. The price is currently showing signs of moving beyond the 100-hour MA.
What the article tells us is fairly straightforward—the common currency had initially dropped lower, prompted by renewed anxieties around possible auto tariffs linked to Trump’s policy rhetoric. That led to traders pulling out or hedging exposures. The move caused the EURUSD to hit lows it last visited in early March. Yet, after reaching a zone that included both the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent upward move and the location of the 200-day moving average, the pair bounced higher. That area had already been shown to serve as structural support in previous sessions, so the rebound isn’t surprising.
Once prices stabilised from that low, we saw them push into a narrow range for a few hours, contained between 1.07609 and 1.07767. At that point, nothing much was conclusive, and positions were likely being tested from both sides. However, the momentum shifted slightly in favour of buyers, helped by some speculative positioning and the fading impact of tariff-related headlines.
Market Reaction And Structure
The key observation lies in the reaction around the 100-hour moving average—this isn’t just another random level. It often reflects short-term directional bias. In this case, it was sitting near 1.0797, where we noticed a brief pause. Once the price started to stretch beyond that moving average with some consistency, it suggested that upward continuation was more than just a knee-jerk reaction.
Now, zooming out just slightly, we’re watching the next technical checkpoints with care. The band between 1.0808 and 1.0818 lines up nicely with earlier reversals—a place where previous rallies lost steam. It’s not enough for price to brush into that band; we’re watching for signs of price acceptance above it, such as increased volume and a stable footing kept there. If that happens, the 200-hour moving average at 1.08457 comes into play.
These reference points aren’t arbitrary. They’re layered in areas that previously showed order flow changes. A bounce here, rejection there—it’s all historical price memory. What we’re doing now is measuring whether today’s buyers are strong enough to hold on longer than the ones last time.
In terms of sensitivity, this isn’t a market moving solely on macro headlines. Technical structure is clearly guiding price shifts with more force. That was especially visible during Tuesday’s overlap with the London session, where flows were strongly linked to these reference levels.
Right now, with prices heading above the 100-hour average and no major data releases disrupting the rhythm, we’re concentrating on whether this move has the kind of follow-through typical of broader repositioning. We’re more responsive to pullbacks than breakouts at this stage—retracements into prior resistance zones will either confirm a new base or invalidate the current leg upward. We’re watching spread widening, if any, to gauge how aggressive the underlying flows are.
There’s an embedded message in this structure. Price doesn’t randomly drift into these levels. Each push or stall aligns with how the short-term and medium-term participants are rebalancing. We’ll be adapting quickly, not with broad assumptions, but by tracking every close in relation to our established metrics.
