On 28 March at 10 am New York time, there are important FX option expiries to consider. For EUR/USD, the levels are 1.0750 and 1.0800, with the latter expected to limit upward price movement.
For USD/JPY, there is an expiry at the 151.00 level, which may influence price action around this figure during the upcoming session. This occurs before the US trading session, where attention will shift to the PCE price index release. Overall, market sentiment and bond yields are anticipated to be the primary factors affecting trading for this pair.
Understanding Fx Option Expiries
To understand what’s unfolding here, it helps to look at the mechanics of these FX options expiries and consider how they affect price movement in the short term. When large volumes of options are due to expire—particularly near round numbers or key levels—spot prices are often drawn toward them as traders seek to manage risk or hedge their exposure. That’s partly what we’re seeing with the euro-dollar pair and the dollar-yen.
The euro-dollar expiry at 1.0800 suggests that there’s notable interest clustered there, which can act as a magnet for price, especially as we approach the fix. Markets have a tendency to drift toward these levels if there’s little directional bias elsewhere. However, once that expiry rolls off, any pressure that’s kept the euro near that price point may release, which could result in sharp moves depending on how positioning and sentiment shift post-fix.
Similarly, the dollar-yen figure resting just above 151.00 ahead of the US session could affect price stability during the morning hours in New York. It’s worth pointing out that option-related flows can sometimes mute volatility, at least temporarily—and that might be what’s propping up the current levels. But once that expiry clears, traders will be more driven by the incoming data—specifically the PCE price index—and how that interacts with Treasury yields.
Yields have tracked closely with dollar-yen for months, underlining how sensitive this pair remains to the economic signals that affect Federal Reserve expectations. Thursday’s inflation data has potential to sway rate outlooks again, and this in turn could bring dollar-yen off its axis if the reading surprises.
Volatility After Expiry And Pce Data
From where we sit, it’s the immediate post-expiry period that deserves extra attention. While we know the levels themselves may keep spot prices pinned for now, this doesn’t last. Traders using options as part of more sophisticated strategies often unwind or rebalance positions after expiry, adding energy back into the market. We plan to monitor those changes closely, particularly in the absence of fresh central bank commentary.
Positions should be stress-tested for more pronounced reactions after the inflation data. Once the expiry impact fades, the data will likely do more of the heavy lifting. Levels that held during the morning might not survive into the afternoon if the report shifts the rate picture.
What we’re seeing now is more mechanical than thematic: positioning into expiry, hedging around key strikes, and participants preparing for data. When these forces collide—options rolling off, yields adjusting, and inflation prints arriving—the picture clears up considerably. Short-term volatility could reappear.
It’s not the time to assume that recent directional moves will continue unchanged. Options flow has a dampening effect, but it’s like a pressure cooker—it doesn’t last forever. Being ready for when that valve releases, especially into news-driven catalysts, is how we’re preparing.
