Gold faced pressure following the US Flash PMIs, which indicated a strong recovery from the previous month. Market participants remain cautious ahead of the tariffs plan announcement scheduled for April 2nd.
As long as the Federal Reserve maintains its current stance on interest rates, gold prices are expected to trend upwards due to falling real yields, barring a strong growth scare.
Current Market Movement
Currently, gold is retracing from recent highs, with buyers presenting a better risk-reward scenario around the 2955 level, coinciding with a trendline. Conversely, sellers are targeting a price drop below this trendline to reach the 2832 level.
Analysis on the 4-hour chart shows minor resistance at 3020, where price rejections suggest sellers may continue to dominate. Buyers seek a breakout above this level to pursue new all-time highs.
The 1-hour chart indicates a downward trendline that characterises current bearish momentum. Sellers are expected to maintain pressure, while buyers will aim for a breakout to regain control and drive prices higher.
Key economic reports scheduled for release include the US Consumer Confidence today, US Jobless Claims on Thursday, and US PCE data on Friday.
Upcoming Market Events
The recent US Flash PMI data showed stronger economic activity compared to the prior month. Because of this, traders have reacted by adjusting their positions, leading to weakness in gold. Many remain hesitant ahead of the upcoming tariff-related announcement on 2 April, as it may influence market sentiment and the broader outlook for commodities.
Gold’s long-term direction remains closely tied to Federal Reserve policy. With rates holding steady, real yields have softened, adding upward momentum to prices. Unless there is a sharp downturn in economic growth, this trend is likely to persist.
At present, gold is pulling back from its recent peaks. The area around 2955 appears favourable for buyers, since it aligns with a rising trendline, offering a reasonable entry point. On the other hand, sellers are focused on pushing prices below this level, with a clear downside objective near 2832.
Observing the 4-hour timeframe, price movement has met resistance around 3020. Repeated sell-offs from this point suggest sellers continue to hold an advantage. A break above this level would indicate growing strength from buyers, allowing for the pursuit of new all-time highs.
Shifting to shorter timeframes, the 1-hour chart highlights an ongoing downward trendline. The prevailing bearish structure suggests sellers retain control, applying continued pressure. However, if buyers manage to break through this trendline, momentum would likely shift in their favour, setting the stage for higher prices.
Across the broader market, several data releases are set to shape expectations this week. Today’s US Consumer Confidence report could provide further insight into economic conditions. On Thursday, Jobless Claims figures will offer a fresh look at labour market stability, while Friday’s PCE data remains a key indicator for inflationary trends. With these scheduled events, traders should monitor price reactions closely, as they are likely to influence short-term movements.
