Goldman Sachs has increased its year-end 2025 gold price forecast to USD 3,300 per ounce, up from USD 3,100. The projected trading range has also been adjusted to USD 3,250–3,520, reflecting strong demand from Asian central banks.
The bank anticipates that these central banks will continue large-scale gold purchases for another three to six years as they aim to achieve their long-term reserve targets. This ongoing buying is expected to support upward price movements.
Medium Term Price Risks
Additionally, medium-term risks are leaning towards the upside, with potential extreme scenarios estimating gold prices could exceed USD 4,200 per ounce by the end of 2025.
Goldman Sachs’ upward revision of its gold forecast reflects underlying forces that have been shaping the metal’s performance for months. Strong purchasing activity from Asian central banks—and their stated intentions to persist—has bolstered the outlook. These institutions are not buying reactively; they appear to be executing structured, long-term strategies to shift their reserves.
This steady accumulation has had a predictable effect. Prices have moved upward and projections have adjusted accordingly. The bank’s updated trading range suggests expectations of continued strength, with a broader ceiling that accounts for potential surges. Notably, estimates for extreme cases now comfortably breach USD 4,200 per ounce, indicating that even seemingly unlikely outcomes are being treated as plausible.
Historical precedents reinforce this trajectory. Whenever central banks engage in multi-year reserve shifts, markets tend to respond with lasting price adjustments rather than short-lived spikes. That’s what makes this trend distinct from other periods of gold appreciation. The metal is not simply reacting to short-term inflation concerns or speculative activity; structural demand is firmly in place.
Interpreting Market Risks
This expectation of prolonged accumulation changes how we interpret risk over the next several months. Goldman Sachs suggests that the medium-term tilt favours further increases rather than any sustained downturns. That does not mean prices will climb in a straight line, but it makes short-term declines less threatening. Traders positioning for the coming months should recognise that temporary pullbacks are likely to encounter buying interest from larger entities with longer horizons.
The core idea here is straightforward. The motivations behind these purchases are not shifting quarter by quarter. If these institutions continue to execute their multi-year plans, the pressures that have pushed prices higher will remain in effect. That consistency fundamentally alters downside risks.
Markets always attempt to price in future developments, but when a key source of demand is this constant, underestimating its impact can be costly.
