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The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for the United States registered at 50.2 in March, surpassing expectations of 49.8. This figure indicates a slight expansion in the manufacturing sector.
In the currency markets, AUD/USD experienced a recovery, moving past previous lows, bolstered by positive data from Chinese business activity. Conversely, EUR/USD faced downward pressure, falling below 1.0800.
Gold And Crypto Market Highlights
Gold prices are easing from near $3,150 but remain supported above $3,100 amid a decline in US yields. Bitcoin trades under $85,000, maintaining nearly 3% gains.
Economists are increasingly concerned about a potential recession due to upcoming tariffs.
The latest PMI reading comes in just above the neutral 50.0 mark, suggesting that while growth in US manufacturing isn’t strong, it has at least stabilised—for now. This marginal move into positive territory can give the impression of resilience, particularly when compared with the more pessimistic expectations. That said, it’s not a robust rebound—just enough to hold sentiment steady among short-term macro traders who are gauging cyclical direction.
Currency action has been telling. The Australian dollar bouncing back, primarily driven by data out of China, shows how linked the pair remains to developments in the Asia-Pacific region. It wasn’t so much domestic strength but external influence that prompted the shift. When Chinese output rises, there’s often a chain reaction: demand for raw materials strengthens, commodity-linked currencies follow, and in this case, AUD/USD moved firmly upwards. We saw it brush past recent technical levels with little resistance, which confirms that the move wasn’t only sentiment-driven but had some legs in data as well.
Euro Pressure And Yield Impact
In contrast, the euro continues to slide under the weight of diverging interest rate expectations and less-than-stellar growth figures across the Eurozone. With EUR/USD breaking south of 1.0800, the path lower opens technically. From here, unless there’s a credible argument for growth or a shift from the European Central Bank, short-selling pressure remains in place. The dollar’s strength, while partly based on yield differentials, also feeds from the idea that the US economy—while not thriving—is not stalling either. That alone is enough to favour capital flow into USD from other major currencies.
Turning to metals, gold’s minor retreat from its recent peak hasn’t shaken its underlying support. With US yields declining, especially on the long end, the opportunity cost of holding gold remains low. That’s often where upward momentum resumes, and a floor builds just beneath $3,100. For us, this level is particularly important because it was tested on lighter volume, which hints the market wasn’t committed to pushing prices lower. In this kind of environment—where inflation expectations, rate cuts, and geopolitical risks dance in the background—gold remains a hedge, and a steady one.
As for crypto, Bitcoin’s recent performance stands out. Though it currently hovers below the $85,000 mark, the market has managed to hold onto gains. Nearly 3% has been logged recently, even without fresh catalysts. Part of this might be short-covering, another part might be institutional accumulation after sharp dips. Either way, no flush of selling was observed in the correction, which supports upside bias in price action—provided no sudden policy shift occurs. Market participants who’ve looked to pair it with risk-off positions will be watching liquidity closely over the next stretch.
Lastly, the growing noise around looming tariffs has pushed some economists to raise recessionary flags. While no single policy move tips the balance, it’s the cumulative effect on global supply chains that begins to weigh. Tighter trade terms create sticks in the system—higher input costs, longer delivery times, pricing uncertainty. These are not just theoretical risks; PMI subcomponents often capture them earlier than headline GDP numbers, and we’re already seeing mentions in supplier delivery times and input price inflation. For the next several weeks, those of us following flows should get sharper with our positioning—especially if manufacturing new orders start to falter again. There’s little room for complacency with volatility still compressed.
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