Japan’s industrial production for February increased by 2.3% month-on-month, slightly below the expected 2.5%. This is an important indicator for the manufacturing sector’s performance and has potential implications for economic forecasts.
In currency markets, the EUR/USD pair consolidated gains below 1.1400. The GBP/USD maintained its upward movement, trading above 1.3150 during the European session, driven by persistent US Dollar weakness.
Gold Price Record
The gold price reached a new record high, buoyed by demand from the ongoing US-China trade tensions. However, a positive risk tone in broader markets slightly limited further gains amidst overbought technical conditions.
Additionally, $906 million worth of altcoins is scheduled for unlocking this week, with the TRUMP token leading with over $330 million. The implications of these unlocks on the market could be considerable given the scale involved.
Uncertainty remains over potential recessional trends despite a rally in Wall Street after a delay in tariffs was announced. Investors remain cautious as the trade dispute with China persists, potentially impacting economic stability.
Japan’s industrial output climbing 2.3% month-on-month in February, even if marginally below forecasts, tells us manufacturing momentum is holding together more firmly than some feared. It isn’t a major miss versus the anticipated 2.5%, and the difference is unlikely to prompt major policy shifts, but it reaffirms steady activity in the sector. Coupled with ongoing global uncertainties, that figure serves more as a steadying signal than a worry.
In the FX space, the euro remains somewhat pinned just beneath the 1.1400 level. While there’s no sudden drop in the pair, movement has stilled, reflecting delicate sentiment rather than a shift in fundamentals. The pound’s steady climb above 1.3150 appears more tied to dollar softness than any clear UK-based driver. With risk appetite growing slowly around the edges, the currency reactions suggest we are in a recalibration phase rather than a momentum one. We may not see exaggerated directional trades until the next real catalyst, likely from the US macro docket.
Altcoin Market Volatility
Gold pushing through to fresh record highs has our attention. The metal’s move higher has been fuelled by persistent safe haven interest—largely the result of ongoing geopolitical friction and subdued yields. However, buying has started to look a bit stretched. RSI and other indicators warn of waning breath. And as equities recover and headlines cool, we suspect some trimming of stretched long positions might follow. That won’t necessarily dent the larger picture for bullion, but the speed of the latest surge may not continue at the same pace.
The schedule for the upcoming altcoin token unlocks could inject volatility in the nearer term. The volume is material. With $906 million coming to market, and more than a third of that tied to a single token, supply distortions could drive abrupt swings. Liquidity in the assets involved will determine whether these are short-lived waves or catalysts for deeper movement. Given market sensitivity and a return in retail trading interest, we expect those involved to reassess sizing on both sides—buy and sell—with some likely to reduce risk in advance.
While US markets rallied on the back of tariff delay relief, the undercurrent is far from settled. The trade negotiations have turned into a drawn-out process that has left risk markets reacting more to tone than substance. We are watching for divergence between market behaviour and what the broader economy is showing. What’s most telling now is not just the directional bias, but whether options traders are willing to reprice volatility expectations. So far, that remains muted, which in our view creates asymmetric opportunities if data surprises begin to ramp up.
For those structuring trades around macro themes, this feels like a period that rewards nimbleness more than bold directional conviction. The past week’s resilience in sentiment masks a lingering discomfort in the background. As the next inflation and employment figures approach, attention must stay firmly on expected volatility shifts around those events. Holding into that without hedging may expose positions more than traders realise.
