Iraqi Kurdistan authorities have agreed with Iraq’s federal oil ministry to restart crude exports, addressing a longstanding oil dispute. A joint technical team from Iraq and Turkey is completing final inspections of the Iraq-Turkey pipeline.
A decision regarding the pipeline’s operational status is expected within 24 hours, allowing shipments to Turkey’s Ceyhan port. This agreement follows a 2022 ruling by the International Chamber of Commerce in favour of Iraq concerning Kurdish independent oil exports.
Iraq’s Oil Ministry confirmed that the initial phase will commence with exports of 185,000 barrels per day, with plans to gradually increase this to 400,000 bpd. The region currently produces 300,000 bpd, allocating 185,000 bpd for exports and using the remainder domestically.
This agreement marks a turning point in relations between Erbil and Baghdad, one that has taken years to materialise. The arrangement aims to balance the interests of both parties, ensuring that oil flows resume while Baghdad maintains control over oil revenues. With the inspection process now underway, the market is closely watching how swiftly full operations will resume.
Turkey’s role cannot be overlooked. The pipeline, which runs from Iraq’s northern fields to the port of Ceyhan, is a key route for crude bound for international buyers. Once the final assessments are complete, its operational capacity will determine how fast volumes can ramp up to the planned 400,000 barrels per day. Logistical hurdles or technical delays would extend the hiatus further, but initial shipments are expected to begin soon.
The implications for exports are clear. With 185,000 barrels per day earmarked for resumption, Kurdistan is not yet at full output. Domestic consumption continues to account for a substantial share of production, meaning the region is limited in how much crude it can immediately send abroad. However, as production climbs towards 400,000 barrels per day, more oil will enter global markets, influencing price dynamics depending on the wider supply situation.
For the time being, attention remains on Turkey’s response and the technical team’s assessment. A green light on operations within the next 24 hours would signal progress, but execution remains the key factor. How quickly shipments reach Ceyhan and whether further coordination is required between Iraq’s Oil Ministry and Kurdistan’s authorities will shape market expectations.
Brent crude prices have already reflected anticipation around these developments. A faster-than-expected resumption of full capacity could exert downward pressure, while any setbacks would do the opposite. Market participants will need to monitor not only the volume of resumed exports but also the level of cooperation between all sides involved.
Timing will be everything in the coming weeks. As exports scale up, adjustments in production and logistics will determine how smoothly the process unfolds. Beyond the technical and political factors, the global market’s response to these returning barrels will be something to keep an eye on.
