The USDCHF continued its decline last week, reaching lows not seen since 2011. It broke below a major multi-year range between 0.8333 and 0.8373, previously seen in 2015, 2023, and 2024, hitting a low of 0.80987. This movement occurred just beneath the 0.8100 level.
On Monday, the pair briefly rallied to 0.8267 before dropping. By the day’s close, it was around 0.8100. Today’s trading showed restrained movement, with a high of 0.81877 and a low of 0.8131 in the Asian and European sessions. The current trading level is approximately 0.8178.
Technical Analysis
Technically, sellers are in control as long as the price remains below the 100-hour moving average at 0.82637. For buyers to gain ground, the price needs to break and hold above this average. Additionally, reclaiming the previous support zone between 0.8333 and 0.8373 is necessary for shifting the bearish sentiment.
A dip below the 0.8100 mark would strengthen the bearish trend, potentially leading to further declines for the USDCHF pair.
This recent drop in USDCHF marks a decisive shift in market positioning. We’ve seen it slice through a long-established zone that acted as a structural barrier for nearly a decade. Historically, this area held up during prior pullbacks, so breaking it now — and closing below — alters the tone markedly. Prices sinking beneath 0.8100 has, in effect, flushed the market through a floor that had been standing since the early 2010s.
To put it plainly: the support levels that helped prop up the dollar against the franc are no longer reliable. Weekly closes below those historical zones indicate that participants weren’t just testing the waters — they pulled capital out and let it drop. The brief rally to 0.8267 early in the week didn’t carry enough weight to shake off the selling. That tells us sentiment is still leaning heavily on one side.
Market Sentiment
We are currently holding just under 0.8180. The 100-hour moving average — sitting further above — is now acting as resistance, not support. Until prices move back and stay above it for more than a session, confidence among buyers is likely to remain fragile, and every small rally will probably be treated as a chance to reset rather than re-enter.
Those who operate in short-term interest or volatility-dependent strategies should be aware: the moves around 0.8100 are being watched and acted upon. If this level fails meaningfully again, it opens the door to sharper downside sequences — not because of opinion, but because there’s simply nothing on the technical charts until much lower. With that in mind, we have started mapping projections into previously untouched zones that haven’t been relevant since the lead-up to the Swiss National Bank’s 2015 policy surprise.
Any attempt to reverse this bias would now require a sustained move back into the upper end of the former range. That means crossing 0.8260, certainly, but more importantly, climbing all the way through and absorbing offers up towards the mid-0.8300s. That has not happened yet, and we don’t see signs of strong appetite to force it through in the near term.
Price action over the next week should serve as a test of conviction — not only for holders but also for those waiting to fade any rebound. The market remains exposed to larger swings due to the accelerating nature of this drop. We are adapting accordingly, checking for any oversold signals, but continuing to operate with the downside as the active bias until data or price reclaim zones that were previously defended.
