New applications for unemployment insurance in the US rose to 223,000 for the week ending March 15, surpassing previous week’s revised figure of 221,000. The Department of Labor reported a seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate of 1.2%.
The four-week moving average increased by 750 to 227,000, while Continuing Jobless Claims rose by 33,000, reaching 1.892 million for the week ending March 8.
In the market, the US Dollar Index approached the significant level of 104.00 as it extended gains from the previous day, despite a downward trend in US yields across the curve.
Labour Market Conditions
The rise in jobless claims reflects a small but clear change in labour market conditions. Although the total number of continuing claims remains well below levels that would indicate widespread distress, the increase suggests that some firms are reducing payrolls. The fact that the four-week average also moved higher reinforces this point.
For traders, this matters because the labour market plays a central role in shaping expectations around Federal Reserve policy. A cooling job market might push policymakers to reconsider how long they can maintain current interest rate levels. However, a single week’s data is rarely enough to shift expectations on its own. Instead, we need to watch closely for a pattern. If future reports show further increases in claims, it will strengthen the case for policy adjustments sooner rather than later.
Market Strategy Considerations
Meanwhile, the US dollar’s strength stands out, particularly given declining Treasury yields. Normally, when yields fall, the currency tends to weaken as lower rates reduce returns on dollar-denominated assets. Instead, we see the dollar holding firm, even testing the 104.00 mark. This suggests demand is driven by other factors, perhaps linked to global financial conditions or shifts in haven flows.
If current trends continue, positioning may need adjustment. Should jobless claims keep creeping up, while the dollar remains resilient, market strategies will need to account for diverging signals from employment data and currency markets. Monitoring upcoming labour reports, alongside bond movements, will be essential.
