Recent reports suggested optimism for a US-Japan trade agreement, but clarity remains elusive. Charlie Gasparino from Fox Business indicated progress, yet a deal is not imminent.
Amidst this, Howard Lutnick remains actively involved in negotiations, despite rumours of a leadership shift to Scott Bessent. He participated in a recent meeting with the Japanese trade minister at the White House.
The Market Awaits The 90 Deals
The market is keenly anticipating the commencement of the ’90 deals in 90 days’, as promised by the Trump administration. The initial deal will hint at the feasibility of removing the 10% tariff floor.
What’s already happened here is a blend of market speculation and strategic posturing. There’s talk, yes, and it’s concrete in the sense that people are meeting, things are being proposed, and interested parties are staying close to the table. But from a trading standpoint—especially in derivatives—the underlying message is this: there’s movement, but the outcomes are not assured.
Gasparino’s comments implied there’s at least some momentum. That’s valuable. It tells us the talks aren’t stalled. However, the fact that he noted nothing is imminent should weigh more heavily. When we hear that negotiations are progressing “but”, we should put more emphasis on what follows that word.
Then there’s Lutnick. His appearance in these conversations clears up some of the noise about power shifts. He was in the room with Japan’s trade minister—at the White House, no less—which sends a reliable signal about influence and current involvement. Bessent’s name being floated doesn’t change that reality. What this tells us, if we’re paying close attention, is that the key negotiating voices from the US side haven’t changed for now.
Reading Between The Lines Of Trade Deals
Now, about the “90 deals in 90 days” phrase. Taken by itself, it sounds overly ambitious. From a trader’s viewpoint, what concerns us more than the pace is the direction. The first agreement is going to matter because that’s what gives us a reference point. It’s not just about the number; it’s about whether this first one suggests that the 10% tariff floor—the minimum barrier that’s been weighing on margins, especially in structured products—can actually be reduced or discounted significantly. And not in rhetoric, but in writing.
We’re in familiar territory when expectations outpace deliverables. So how do we react? Slowly. Carefully. We should treat each rumour or announcement as part of a sequence rather than a standalone event. If the first trade deal reverses part of the tariff structure, that could feed into short-term volatility in certain forward-looking instruments, especially those tied to major exporters or transport indexes.
Positioning should be staggered. There’s still no timetable for a complete rollback, and options volume around interest-rate sensitive assets may start to reflect that waiting game. The real test will be whether the first agreement—whatever it covers—includes any clause about future reductions or contingencies. We will need to read it, word by word.
The key in the coming weeks is to watch behaviour, not announcements. Are hedge flows shifting? Is there repositioning among bond traders that suggests a belief in upcoming policy adjustment? Does open interest in FX options that hedge yen risk tick upward? These are clearer indicators than statements from press briefings.
We should be prepared for brief shifts in implied volatility, without forgetting the broader uncertainty that’s still priced into long-dated contracts. Nothing is off the table, certainly not in this context, but patience continues to reward more convincingly than quick directional bets.
It’s not about predicting the first deal. It’s about interpreting it properly when it lands.
