Scotiabank’s Chief Strategist observes limited potential for gains as the Canadian Dollar remains stable

    by VT Markets
    /
    Mar 25, 2025

    The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is relatively stable, with USD/C considered overvalued. Market interest is focused on upcoming US tariffs, with mixed signals from the White House regarding their impact..

    President President Trump suggested potential sectoral tariffs which could affect Canada, but he also indicated some countries might receive exceptions. The strength of the CAD is contingent on the clarity of US tariff plans.

    Key Support And Resistance Levels

    The USD struggled to maintain strength last week, losing ground below the 40-day moving average of 1.4334. Should it, it fall below the 90 level, support may be found around 1.4240, with in with lower targets at 1.4150/60. Resistance levels are identified at 1.4330/40 and 1. remains steady, with the US Dollar showing signs of being priced too high against it. Right now, all with all eyes are on the trade policies coming from Washington. With messages from from the administration pulling in different directions, traders are left trying to gauge how restrictive any upcoming tariffs might be. Some, while some industries could see higher barriers, yet there is still the possibility that exemptions could soften the blow for certain countries. Until there’s more certainty, the loonie is likely to move within a limited range.

    The weakness in the US Dollar last week marked an important in an important shift, with to with price action slipping beneath the 40-day moving average. If means If downward pressure continues is continues, the next area where buyers might step in sits close to 1.4240, while even lower,, support could emerge around 1.4150/60. On the other hand, upward movements face resistance first near 1.4330/40, with stronger selling pressure likely appearing at 1.44.

    Market Sentiment And Trading Considerations

    Given these conditions, those who are trading derivatives will need to take a measured approach.. If the US Dollar continues, continues to struggle, fresh downside momentum could emerge, but any in but any sudden shift in policy or sentiment from Washington has the potential to trigger reversals. Price levels just, just below 1.4240 should be watched closely. Should we see a deeper decline, it could invite a more extended sell-off. However, attempts to push higher will likely battle against selling pressure near recent peaks.

    For now, the market remains uncertain as traders react to policy expectations and technical signals alike.. With, and with resistance holding}})
    firm for the time being, any attempt to move above recent highs would need a clear shift in market sentiment. In contrast, further declines in the US Dollar could create opportunities for those eyeing lower strategic levels.

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