The EURUSD has reached a low within a two-week trading range, breaching the 61.8% retracement level at 1.08174, as well as last week’s low at 1.08044. Should the pair fall below the 1.0804–1.0817 region, it may discourage buyers and empower sellers who previously sold around 1.0936–1.0954.
If the decline continues, targets include the swing area between 1.0776 to 1.0760, the 100-bar MA at 1.0743, and the 200-day MA at 1.0728. A drop below these levels would reinforce the bearish sentiment, giving more control to sellers.
Buying Opportunity Amid Support Zone
Conversely, the support zone down to 1.08044 offers a buying opportunity, as evidenced last week when buyers entered. Those looking to buy a dip can establish risk limits around this level.
On the upside, recovering above 1.0859 would enhance buyer confidence. Additional resistance levels are found at the 200-hour MA at 1.0888 and the 100-hour MA at 1.0902, which must be surpassed for buyers to gain momentum.
With the currency pair breaking through both the 61.8% retracement level and last week’s low, the price has ventured into territory that may embolden those who have been favouring a downward move. The area between 1.0804 and 1.0817 now serves as a decisive battleground. If further selling pressure forces the pair below this range, the position of those who previously engaged in short positions near the 1.0936–1.0954 zone could be further justified.
Looking at where prices may land next, the 1.0776–1.0760 swing area is the nearest test. If momentum carries through, attention turns to the 100-bar moving average, resting at 1.0743, followed by the 200-day moving average at 1.0728. Trading activity below these thresholds would likely discourage any attempts at a near-term recovery, reinforcing the control that sellers have maintained.
Key Resistance Levels For Buyers
That being said, there remains a case for buyers. The same zone that has come under pressure now was an area where interest emerged last week, suggesting that some may view current levels as reasonable for entering long positions with clearly defined limits. The reaction within this price band should provide insight into whether buyers still retain a presence to counter the downward movement.
To generate confidence for the other side, price must push above 1.0859. Should that happen, the focus shifts to 1.0888, where the 200-hour moving average stands in the way. Even if that level is overcome, there remains another hurdle at 1.0902, marked by the 100-hour moving average. Only a decisive move beyond this point would suggest that buyers have regained control, overturning the recent bearish developments.
