GBPUSD maintains a bullish trend on the H4 chart, with key resistance levels at 1.2988 and 1.30139, marking recent highs. Support stands at 1.2908 to 1.2922, with the 61.8% retracement level at 1.2922 serving as an important marker.
A decline below the 100-bar moving average at 1.28871 would indicate potential downward momentum, with targets set at the swing area of 1.2830 to 1.2843 and subsequently the 200-day moving average near 1.2800.
Technical Outlook
The technical outlook suggests either continuation of the upward movement or a potential shift towards a bearish scenario, depending on price action around the key support levels.
The outlook for GBPUSD remains constructive, with the pair continuing to trade within an upward trajectory on the four-hour chart. The rejection of lower levels and repeated tests of resistance suggest market participants are favouring buying pressure, though signs of hesitation near the upper boundary can’t be ignored. Short-term resistance is evident at 1.2988 and 1.30139, where price has struggled to maintain momentum in past sessions. A sustained move beyond these points would imply further buying interest, making a test of higher levels likely. However, should sellers regain control, established support between 1.2908 and 1.2922 would come into focus. The latter coincides with the 61.8% retracement, reaffirming its importance to broader positioning.
A break beneath this support would change short-term sentiment, increasing the likelihood of deeper declines. The 100-bar moving average at 1.28871 serves as the next threshold where market reactions would provide insight into directional intent. If price dips below this level, renewed selling pressure could open the path towards 1.2830 to 1.2843, a zone already shown to act as an inflection point in prior moves. Beyond that, the 200-day moving average near 1.2800 presents a longer-term marker that could dictate broader trends.
Market Sentiment
With both bullish and bearish scenarios still in play, monitoring price reactions at these defining levels remains necessary. As long as buyers defend key supports, upward movement remains the dominant trend. However, any sustained weakness beneath those areas would shift momentum, potentially favouring a deeper retracement. Pricing behaviour should be observed carefully, as any break and confirmation beyond technical boundaries is likely to dictate sentiment in the sessions ahead.
