The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has maintained its cash rate at 4.10% as expected in its April 2025 policy announcement. It noted that while underlying inflation is easing, returning it to target remains the primary objective.
Policymakers emphasised the need for confidence amidst ongoing global uncertainties, indicating that inflation risks are balanced. Future decisions will rely on incoming data and evolving assessments, with market reactions stable, resulting in the AUDUSD trading at 0.6256.
Rba Maintains Caution Despite Easing Inflation
RBA Governor Michele Bullock reaffirmed the cautious stance, acknowledging that inflation trends are aligning but full confidence is not yet present. She mentioned that global factors and U.S. tariffs present downside risks, while the tight labour market does not trigger immediate rate cuts.
The AUDUSD has shown some fluctuations, recently stalling near a critical swing zone, which previously provided support. To shift the market bias higher, the pair must break above the resistance zone established after recent trading activity.
In prior trading, early gains were capped by the 100-day and 200-bar moving averages, now near 0.6303–0.6309. Additionally, the recent low at 0.6218 is an important level to monitor if selling pressure increases. The focus remains on the ceiling at 0.6268 for immediate trading direction.
What we’ve seen is a confirmation of stability in the cash rate from the Reserve Bank, which sends a fairly measured signal to those closely watching short-term rate expectations. With inflation no longer accelerating, but not yet sufficiently subdued, the guidance offered was cautious but deliberate. There’s an effort here to reassure that while price pressures are settling down, patience is still warranted; the job is not yet done.
Technical Focus On Key Support And Resistance Levels
Bullock’s tone reinforces that the central bank won’t be rushed into rate cuts just because inflation is drifting lower. Economic inputs are varied, and risks are not skewed strongly one way or the other. It’s a balancing act that leaves the door open for a few outcomes, pending fresh data. For those of us observing shorter duration spreads or watching implied rate paths, the emphasis should be on reading data cleanly and avoiding overreactions to single prints.
From a technical viewpoint, the AUDUSD remains in a fairly disciplined range. The rejection from the combined 100-day and 200-bar averages near 0.6305 suggests traders are hesitating to position in size before a convincing break. As long as price remains pinned below that zone, it’s difficult to justify a sustained shift in direction. In these cases, positioning must remain flexible, with stops tightly calibrated.
Moves lower toward 0.6218 are not out of the question, especially if broader risk appetite softens or yields start tilting more favourably to the US. The pair has bounced off that level previously—a sign that it might hold again—but pressure could build fast if external themes push funding currencies higher.
For now, our focus lies squarely on interim ranges. Frequent changes in yields could trigger snap repricings, but unless the local data breaks decisively one way or the other, this established structure within AUD pairs is likely to persist. Market depth is thinner during the Asian hours, so levels may be probed more easily overnight, even if conviction does not follow.
We’re watching volatility premiums, particularly in the one-week and two-week tenors, for clues on how positioning may shift as May data releases approach. This isn’t a time for strong directional bets unless price convincingly clears structural hurdles. Instead, the approach leans toward fading extremes, guided by clean technical zones and data-driven filters.
