The UK unemployment rate for January is at 4.4%, matching expectations and remaining unchanged from previous readings. Employment increased by 144,000, surpassing the anticipated rise of 95,000.
Average weekly earnings rose by 5.8%, slightly below the forecast of 5.9%. The prior figure was revised from 6.0% to 6.1%. Earnings excluding bonuses remained steady at 5.9%, consistent with expectations. February payrolls also showed a change of 21,000, with a downward revision in January’s figures from 21,000 to 9,000. Real earnings decreased to 2.1%, down from 2.6% the previous month.
Employment Growth And Stability
The latest employment figures show stability in the job market, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.4%. This supports expectations that employment conditions have remained steady. The increase of 144,000 in employment, well above the predicted 95,000, indicates a stronger labour market than anticipated.
Wage growth tells a slightly different story. Average weekly earnings grew by 5.8%, just below the 5.9% estimate, while the previous number was revised upwards to 6.1%. Though only a minor difference, it suggests that pay increases have not slowed as much as initially thought. Meanwhile, wages excluding bonuses remained at 5.9%, reinforcing the idea that earnings are holding firm.
Another element worth noting is the revision to payroll numbers. The latest data for February added 21,000 jobs, but January’s figures were revised down from the same amount to just 9,000. Combined with the decline in real earnings to 2.1% from 2.6%, this presents a mixed picture—nominal wages are high, but inflation-adjusted pay growth is cooling slightly.
Impact On Economic Policy
For those assessing market movements, changes to payroll figures and wage growth often influence expectations around economic policy. The resilience in employment suggests no immediate concerns about job losses, but the small downtick in wage pressures could reduce the urgency for any rapid monetary changes. Monitoring future data releases will be important, particularly if real earnings continue their decline or if job creation slows.
The key takeaway from this report is the balance between job growth and wage changes. With employment rising above expectations but earnings seeing minor downward revisions, focus should remain on whether this pattern continues in the coming months. Overstating any single data point would be unwise, but neither should any signals be dismissed too quickly.
